Pro Football Focus loves stats, numbers, rankings and everything in between to try and accurately predict the future. After simulating the upcoming NFL season 10,000 times, they’ve arrived to a dismal conclusion about the Steelers: They’re the least likely team to win the AFC North.
According to PFF, the Steelers possess a 9.6 percent chance to capture the division, just behind the Bengals, who are sitting at 9.7 percent. The Browns are the favorites at 46.3 percent, followed by the Ravens at 34.4 percent.
It’s shocking to see the Steelers ranked this poorly, despite the questions that exist on the offensive line. PFF gives the Steelers the fifth-worst chance to win their division in the NFL, behind the moribund Chargers, Panthers, Broncos, Texans and Lions.
Overall, PFF projects the Steelers will finish with 7.6 wins.
The AFC North figures to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The Browns’ blowout victory over the Steelers in the Wild Card Round served as a passing the torch moment, with Cleveland winning all three contests against Pittsburgh last season. The game was over well before halftime.
This offseason, the Browns have only added to their roster. Perhaps most notably, they signed Jadevon Clowney to bolster their pass rush. With Kevin Stefanski entering his second season, the prognosticators at PFF are clearly expecting Cleveland to blossom. One of the keys will be Baker Mayfield, and whether he can emerge as an elite passer in his fourth season, as well as finally click with Odell Beckham Jr.
The Ravens, meanwhile, lost some pieces this offseason, including defensive star Matthew Judon. After another playoff disappointment — the Bills defeated the Ravens in the Divisional Round — Lamar Jackson is under pressure to qualify for his first AFC Championship. Baltimore scored just three points against the Bills last January.
While Cleveland and Baltimore are better than the Steelers on paper, it’s worth remembering they went 12-4 last season, and won their first 11 contests. The Steelers were wretched down the stretch, losing four of their last five games, which probably contributes to their brutally low ranking in PFF’s season simulation.
They’re lost multiple veterans on both sides of the ball, including offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva, center Maurkice Pouncey, linebacker Bud Dupree, safety Mike Hilton and cornerback Steven Nelson. Juju Smith-Schuster surprisingly returned on a one-year deal.
The Steelers possesses numerous weapons at skill positions, especially with first-round pick Najee Harris slated to start in the backfield. But questions surround Ben Roethlisberger, who posted a subpar 81.9 quarterback rating in December, and reportedly battled through “serious” knee issues. At 39 years old, Roethlisberger’s health remains a big question.
Still, at least Roethlisberger was on the field last season, which can’t be said for Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. The 2019 No. 1 pick is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL. Clearly, the analytically inclined expect him to make a full recovery, and help inch the Bengals pass Pittsburgh. Burrow was excellent when he played, throwing for 2,688 yards and 13 touchdowns in 10 games.
The Steelers are running it back, but their route could be leading them straight to the cellar.