A new poll released Friday shows a growing swell of support for Gov. Gavin Newsom as the Sept. 14 recall election approaches.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, cosponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 60.1 percent of likely voters oppose recalling Newsom with only 38.5 percent in favor of removing the governor.
The results marked a departure from an earlier IGS poll. The July responses had opposition to the recall at only 50 percent, while nearly the same amount of voters, 47 percent, responded with support for ousting the governor. The near-even split gave Newsom only a narrow three-point margin of success.
Since July, high-profile Democrats inside and out of the state have spoken out against the recall effort, labeling it a Republican power grab. Vice President Kamala Harris joined Newsom in the Bay Area on Wednesday, and President Joe Biden is expected to campaign with Newsom in Long Beach on Monday.
It appears the move to motivate Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters has worked in the six-week period between the two polls.
The Berkeley IGS poll Director Mark DiCamillo said it will be difficult for Republicans to turn the tide of support for Newsom at this point.
“This election in the final week became much more than a vote about Gavin Newsom and how much you like him. It really spoke to the heart of California politics and where the public is on these issues,” he told KNX.
The survey revealed voters were concerned with issues like climate change, abortion and the state’s drought.
Raphe Sonenshein is the executive director of the Pat Brown Institute at Cal State Los Angeles. When it comes to Newsom's support, Sonenshein said focusing on guiding the state through wildfire season and the continued COVID-19 pandemic is the right move for Newsom.
"He has an opportunity for leadership on these crisis," said Sonenshein.
Fewer than 2 percent of likely voters responded that they were undecided or declined to answer, which indicates most voters have made up their minds in the days before the election. According to Political Data, Inc., more than four million mail-in ballots have already been returned from Democrats. The company's data show more than seven million ballots returned total.
According to DiCamillo, voters who have already cast their ballot tended to vote against the recall. “In our poll, 39 percent of voters had already voted, and they’re heavily on the ‘no’ side. It was 70 percent ‘no’ to 30 percent ‘yes’ among those who had already voted,” he said.
Juan Rodriguez, the manager for Newsom’s anti-recall campaign, told the Times the poll’s results did not surprise him.
“I think you’re now seeing Democrats so fired up because they know what this recall really is about,” he said. The anti-recall campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on ads that portray the recall campaign as an attempt to Republicans to seize control of the state.
Dave Gilliard is a of the strategists working on the recall effort. He told the Times that the governor’s decision to bring in high-profile Democrats shows that Newsom is scared.
“They knew about four or five weeks ago that they were on the cusp of losing,” Gilliard said. “You wouldn’t have President Obama here on TV in the final week if you weren’t worried about your base.”
Election Day is Tuesday, Sept. 14. That is also the deadline for mail-in ballots.
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