New coach. The return of David Krejci. At least one more year of Patrice Bergeron. Possibly a “Last Dance.”
It’s finally time to get it all going for real, with the Bruins opening the 2022-23 season Wednesday night in Washington.
Skate Pod: Media Day takeaways and season predictions
Here’s what we’ve come up with for a season preview. Why six lists of three? Great question. I don’t have a good answer. Pretend it’s a tribute to Brad Marchand or something.
3 questions that still need answering
1. Will they get Pastrnak’s extension done, and when?
David Pastrnak, Don Sweeney, Cam Neely and Charlie Jacobs all addressed the state of their contract talks during Monday’s media day. The consensus was that the two sides are talking nearly every day, everyone wants it to happen, and everyone is optimistic that a deal will eventually get done.
That’s great, but there obviously has to be some reason it’s not done already. The fact that they’re talking nearly every day could indicate that they’re close, though. If they were far apart, or if Pastrnak wanted to wait a couple months to see how the season plays out, they probably wouldn’t be talking as frequently. Our bet would be that this gets done relatively soon, but Bruins fans will understandably continue to fret until it actually does.
The worst-case scenario is that Pastrnak remains unsigned for many more months and the Bruins end up in a position where they’re worried about losing him for nothing next summer and have to at least consider getting something for him before the trade deadline. That is still a long ways off, though, so no one should be hitting the panic button just yet.
2. What moves do they make when Marchand and McAvoy return?
The Bruins maneuvered their way under the cap prior to Monday’s 5 p.m. deadline by temporarily sending Nick Foligno, Mike Reilly and Jakub Lauko to Providence, then recalling them after they placed Charlie McAvoy on long-term injured reserve. Brad Marchand is currently just on regular injured reserve, and the Bruins would prefer to keep it that way rather than use LTIR twice.
They now have the cap space to keep Foligno and Reilly around despite previously waiving them, at least for now. They also had the cap space to sign Anton Stralman to a one-year, $1 million deal on Tuesday. But at some point before McAvoy returns, they are going to have to clear some salary off the books to fit his $9.5 million cap hit back in.
While Sweeney and the Bruins won’t admit it publicly, they would have been relieved if someone had claimed Foligno and/or Reilly and eased their future financial headache. Now they may eventually have to find a way to trade one of them or someone else, which won’t be easy given that every potential trade partner knows what their cap situation is.
3. What the heck does the fourth line ultimately look like?
For now, it looks like the fourth line for opening night is probably going to be Tomas Nosek centering Foligno and Lauko. That line played well in Saturday’s preseason finale, and Montgomery has kept them together the last two days in practice.
How long that line stays together remains to be seen. None of the three have a stranglehold on a regular roster spot. Foligno already got waived, and his $3.8 million cap hit makes him a prime candidate to eventually be a salary dump, especially if he doesn’t play much better than last season.
Nosek seemed like a candidate to be waived coming off a tough 2021-22 season and underwhelming preseason, but has managed to stick around for now. Lauko can be sent to Providence without going through waivers, so he’ll definitely need to earn his keep.
Jack Studnicka and Trent Frederic are pushing all three for playing time, and Studnicka in particular had a pretty good preseason. Frederic started training camp with a spot in the lineup, but appears to have lost it after an inconsistent preseason. Marc McLaughlin, who had a strong preseason, looms in Providence as well and could be a call-up candidate sooner than later.
3 Bruins who could have career years
1. David Pastrnak
Pastrnak had his first semi-normal offseason in years this summer. Two years ago, he spent the offseason recovering from hip surgery that forced him to miss the start of the season. Last year, hockey took a back seat to personal tragedy following the death of his newborn son.
Despite all that, Pastrnak averaged over a point per game the last two years and scored 40 goals last season. Now he’s in a better place both physically and mentally, and he gets an upgrade from Erik Haula to David Krejci as his center.
Pastrnak may not win another Rocket Richard Trophy this year (Auston Matthews might have that locked down for a bit), but we could certainly see him match or surpass his career highs of 48 goals and 95 points from 2019-20. All the more reason for the Bruins to try to get Pastrnak locked up now, before his price goes even higher.
2. Jake DeBrusk
Another guy in a great spot and playing with a clearer head. DeBrusk rescinded his trade request this offseason, got a welcome coaching change, and gets to start the season on a line with Patrice Bergeron and Taylor Hall.
DeBrusk’s season completely turned around in the second half last year when he got moved up to Bergeron’s line, finishing with 18 goals and 27 points over his final 34 games. That would be an 82-game pace of 43 goals and 65 points. We’re not predicting DeBrusk to reach those totals, but his career highs of 27 goals and 43 points seem likely to fall.
3. Pavel Zacha
Zacha came into the NHL with high offensive expectations when the Devils drafted him sixth overall in 2015, but in six seasons in New Jersey, he topped out with career highs of 17 goals and 36 points.
Acquired over the summer for Erik Haula, Zacha is now in what should be a much more favorable situation. He’s going to start the season on a line with fellow Czechs Krejci and Pastrnak, and he also spent time playing with Bergeron in camp.
The Bruins have given Zacha a green light to shoot more and not just defer to the bigger names around him, and he should get plenty of opportunities to do that regardless of which of the top two lines he’s on. As a result, he could be set up for maybe the most productive stretch of his career.
Once Marchand returns, Zacha figures to end up on the third line with Charlie Coyle and Craig Smith. The Bruins hope he’ll be settled in and rolling by then. If he is, he’ll be a sizable upgrade over everyone else the Bruins have tried at third-line left wing over the last year.
3 Bruins who must be better
1. Brandon Carlo
In terms of both basic and advanced stats, Carlo’s 2021-22 season was pretty much right in line with his career norms. It’s hard not to feel like the soon-to-be 26-year-old defenseman has more to give, though.
His new coach certainly thinks he does. Montgomery said earlier in the preseason that he believes Carlo “has a lot more” to give offensively. Every defenseman will be expected to be more active in transition and in the offensive zone under Montgomery’s system, so we’ll see if he’s right about Carlo.
The Bruins would also like to see Carlo cut down on some of the mistakes in his own zone that plagued him at times last season. Carlo is going to be counted on to be one of the Bruins’ top two defensemen until McAvoy returns, and to anchor the second pairing after that.
If he can be a steadying presence, the Bruins should have one of the best D groups in the NHL. If he’s inconsistent, the second pair becomes an uncomfortable question mark.
2. Craig Smith
Similar to Carlo, if you just look at the raw numbers, Smith’s 16 goals and 36 points in 74 games last season weren’t that far off his career averages. But it’s how things ended that was the problem. Smith had zero goals and four assists in the final 13 regular-season games, then zero points in seven playoff games.
The Bruins know from experience how important it is to have a good third line. Playoff series often swing on them. When the Bruins had one in 2019, they went on a deep run. When they’ve struggled to find the right combination since, they haven’t.
Obviously, the formula isn’t quite that simple. And the third line’s playoff struggles last year weren’t all on Smith by any means.
The Bruins have the makings of a promising third line this year, especially when Marchand returns and someone from the current top six (presumably Pavel Zacha) slides down. But whether the line actually lives up to that promise could hinge on whether Smith bounces back and avoids prolonged slumps like the one he was mired in to end last season.
3. Matt Grzelcyk
This inclusion isn’t so much about Grzelcyk being “better,” but rather “healthier when it matters most.” Grzelcyk was having arguably the best season of his career last year, but then a shoulder injury suffered in January got worse and worse as the season went on and ultimately caused him to miss multiple games in the playoffs. It was not the first time that he has been unable to hold up physically for a full season.
Grzelcyk is set to return from surgery on said shoulder soon, as he is already practicing without a non-contact jersey. When he does, he will most likely slot in as the No. 2 left-shot defenseman behind Hampus Lindholm.
Having Lindholm ahead of him to handle the heaviest minutes and probably the toughest assignments should help lighten Grzelcyk’s load a bit, but his role will still a big one. McAvoy and Carlo have both been at their best in recent years when Grzelcyk was on their left. The Bruins’ best top four this year has Grzelcyk with one of them again, especially with questions around the other left shots.
Mike Reilly was already put through waivers and would seem like a leading candidate to eventually get moved when the Bruins need to free up cap space. Derek Forbort doesn’t bring enough in transition or the offensive zone to play a top-four role. Jakub Zboril might emerge as a top-four-caliber D, but he has yet to establish that and is coming off ACL surgery.
3 Bruins who may not last the season
1. Mike Reilly
We just mentioned him, but yeah: the pressure is officially on for Reilly, whether it’s entirely fair or not. The Bruins will say all the right things about valuing Reilly, but let’s be real: You don’t put a player on waivers that you’re not, at least to some extent, OK with losing.
Reilly is basically going to have to play the best hockey of his career to keep a spot in the lineup once Grzelcyk and McAvoy return. That’s not impossible, by the way. Reilly had been having a strong preseason before finishing with a tougher game on Saturday. His skating and aggressiveness in the offensive zone also seemingly make him a good fit for the way Montgomery wants his D to play.
But if he struggles or is inconsistent at all, that might be all the Bruins need to write Reilly off as an eventual salary dump. Signing Stralman on Tuesday only further crowded this blue line.
2. Nick Foligno
Similar to Reilly, the writing is kind of on the wall when the team puts you on waivers. No one was going to claim Foligno and his $3.8 million cap hit, but it would have eased the Bruins’ looming cap headache if they had.
Foligno will get every chance to prove that he deserves to play and deserves to continue playing even after Marchand returns, but he’ll need to be much better than last season to do so. He believes he will be, saying he feels "rejuvenated" and healthier than last season.
Foligno finished the preseason with his best game yet and was part of a line with Tomas Nosek and Jakub Lauko that looked good and is now set to be Boston’s fourth line on opening night. But even just being a good fourth-liner may not be enough for Foligno.
As much as everyone likes him and as much as his leadership is valued, $3.8 million is simply too much money for a fourth-liner, and so Foligno will remain in the crosshairs when it comes to ways to clear money.
3. Trent Frederic
The Bruins wanted Frederic to be their third-line left wing last season. He wound up being a healthy scratch in the playoffs. They wanted him to be their third-line left wing to start this season. It appears he will be a healthy scratch on opening night. These are the kinds of things that get you thinking that a change of scenery may ultimately be needed.
Now, the Bruins certainly won’t be in any rush to move Frederic. They’ll give him the opportunity to battle his way back into the lineup. And he’s only making $1.05 million, so he’s not really a cap casualty candidate the way Foligno and Reilly are.
But if Frederic can’t start putting it together on a much more consistent basis, the Bruins may decide that they don’t just have 12 forwards better than him, but 13 or 14 or 15. Frederic can’t say he hasn’t gotten opportunities. At some point, you wonder how many more he’ll get in Boston.
3 P-Bruins who could see significant NHL time
1. Marc McLaughlin
Many of us (myself included) thought McLaughlin had done enough to win the fourth-line right wing job out of camp. The Bruins elected to go with Jakub Lauko instead, with his speed and physicality appearing to be the deciding factors.
That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see McLaughlin, who had three goals in 11 games with the Bruins last season, up in Boston sooner rather than later. It might take a while for the fourth line to really settle, and McLaughlin remains as likely as anyone else to end up there when it matters most later in the season.
2. Johnny Beecher
Beecher also looked like a player who wouldn’t be at all out of place on the fourth line. In his case, though, the Bruins still want to see if he can develop more offense than he showed in college, and playing top-six minutes in Providence is a better way to do that than playing on the fourth line in Boston.
Right now, Tomas Nosek and Jack Studnicka remain ahead of Beecher at the center position. But it’s not hard to envision him getting a look if there’s an injury or two, or if one or both of those guys struggle.
3. Fabian Lysell
Some time in the AHL will do the Bruins’ No. 1 prospect well, and they are right not to rush him into NHL regular-season games.
That said, the fact that the Bruins gave Lysell preseason time on both the Bergeron and Krejci lines is a giant tip-off that they’re at least thinking about the possibility of him playing in a role like that, perhaps as soon as this season.
Lysell will need to tear up the AHL if that’s going to happen, and even then there may need to be an injury or two. But Lysell playing NHL games this year is certainly not out of the question.
3 reasons the Bruins could win it all
1. They’ll have one of the best top sixes in the NHL
The days of the Bruins having to rely on one line come playoffs should be gone, at least for a year. Assuming health and Bergeron and Krejci maintaining a high level of play, Marchand-Bergeron-DeBrusk and Hall-Krejci-Pastrnak would give the Bruins one of the most dangerous top sixes in the NHL.
Slide Zacha down to the third line and Zacha-Coyle-Smith could be the Bruins’ best third line since their run to the Final in 2019. There are enough fourth-line pieces that the Bruins should eventually be able to find something that works.
Overall, it just looks like the deepest forward group the Bruins have had in a while, and that could make a huge difference in the spring. Obviously injuries can ruin any team’s chances, but all we can do now is look at what’s on paper -- or, at least what will be on paper once Marchand returns.
2. They’ll have one of the best top pairings in the NHL
We got a brief glimpse of Lindholm and McAvoy together after the trade deadline last season. Unfortunately for the Bruins, both missed games in the playoffs, as did Grzelcyk.
But the impact of having a left shot like Lindholm who can handle the kind of workload that McAvoy does on the right can’t be overlooked. The Bruins haven’t had that since Zdeno Chara. It helps everyone better fall in line behind them, and saves the Bruins from having to piece together those minutes between guys like Grzelcyk, Reilly and Forbort. They can now slot into more natural second- and third-pairing roles.
In the playoffs -- again, assuming health -- the Bruins can either have Lindholm and McAvoy together for nearly half the game, or split them up and have one on the ice basically at all times.
3. Other East contenders could take a step back
The Lightning, who have won the East three years in a row, lost two key pieces in Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh and didn’t do much to replace them. They’re still a great team, obviously, but they’re not quite as deep as they have been.
The Rangers, who were in the conference finals last year, also lost crucial middle-of-the-lineup players in Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome, and really only added Vincent Trocheck. There’s no guarantee Igor Shesterkin will be quite as otherworldly in net again, either.
The Maple Leafs still haven’t won a playoff series since before the Red Sox broke their World Series curse. They needed to improve their goaltending, but may have actually downgraded it with Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov.
The Panthers already weren’t nearly as good in the playoffs as they were in the regular season. They traded for Matthew Tkachuk, but also lost Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux, MacKenzie Weegar and Mason Marchment.
The Hurricanes made a bunch of changes, bringing in the likes of Max Pacioretty, Brent Burns and Ondrej Kase while moving on from Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter, Max Domi and Tony DeAngelo. It remains to be seen if it all adds up to a net positive.
The Penguins and Capitals, like the Bruins, are trying to keep the golden years alive with aging cores. The Penguins tweaked their defense but are more or less the same team as last year. The Capitals upgraded their goaltending with Darcy Kuemper, but may not get Nicklas Backstrom back at all after hip resurfacing surgery.
Some non-playoff teams definitely got better, including the Senators and Red Wings, but at least on paper, probably not enough to vault into contender status.
If the Bruins can keep their head above water until Marchand and McAvoy return and stay relatively healthy in the spring, they should be right in the mix. And if you have a chance to win the conference, you have a chance to win it all… unless the Avalanche just overpower everyone again.