As 9.5-point underdogs against the team with the best record in the NFL, the Texans need to do to the Ravens what Tennessee did to them after the 2019 season.
Baltimore finished 14-2 and earned home-field advantage in the playoffs. In Mike Vrabel’s second season as the Titans’ coach, they followed a wild card victory at New England with a 28-12 conquest of the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
What the Texans can’t afford to do in Baltimore is a repeat of the first game of the season when they lost 25-9 without scoring a touchdown.
In their first season under DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have been the biggest surprise in the NFL, winning the AFC South with a 10-7 record one season after they were 3-13-1 under Lovie Smith. Their 45-14 bashing of Cleveland in the wild card round solidified the Texans as a team to be reckoned with in the playoffs.
The Ravens had an exceptional season under coach John Harbaugh, finishing with an NFL-best 13-4 record, including a loss to Pittsburgh in the last game in which a lot of starters were rested. Baltimore led the league in fewest points allowed, net point differential, rushing, sacks and takeaways.
After getting snow on Friday, gametime temperature Saturday afternoon is supposed to be 27 degrees and partly sunny. As the game progresses into darkness, it’s projected to drop to 22.
There’s no rain or snow predicted. Wind could be in the 10- to 17-mile-per-hour range. As the clock ticks down to Saturday’s kickoff at 3:30 p.m., this is a good time to check out Five Things to Watch in the Texans’ game against the Ravens:
THE C.J. STROUD FACTOR
C.J. Stroud continued to play like a savvy veteran in the playoff victory over the Browns, and now he has to do it again. Playing against a Cleveland defense that finished first, including first against the pass, he threw for 236 yards in the first half and finished with 274 to go with three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 157.2 rating.
This should be a terrific matchup between offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, both of whom have done outstanding jobs.
Slowik called a tremendous game against the Browns, and his players executed it perfectly. Stroud likes to throw from the pocket, and he’s willing to take a hit before he releases the ball. He prefers to throw down the field rather than check down to running back Devin Singletary.
Stroud is working on a second remarkable streak this season. He began by throwing 191 passes before he suffered his first interception. He’s thrown five overall but none in his last 163 attempts. It’s amazing that Stroud has thrown interceptions in only three of the 16 games he’s played. His poise, decision-making and pinpoint passes have been incredible.
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STROUD MUST BE PROTECTED
C.J. Stroud benefited from a season-best performance by his offensive line in the victory over the Browns last week.
The Ravens led the NFL with 60 sacks, including a team-high 13 by defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who’s emerged as one of the league’s best players at his position. Jadeveon Clowney recorded 9.5 sacks, tying his career high with the Texans. Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy added nine. Stroud was sacked five times in that opening loss to the Ravens.
Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will have his pass rushers come after Stroud from all angles. They’re exceptional at disguising blitzes. They’ll show blitzes to one side or up the middle and then come from the other side or up the middle or back off and rely on a four-man rush. They’ve been very effective using that strategy.
To help counter Baltimore’s excellent pass rush, Slowik could have him rolling out to his right or left on bootlegs or have him utilize a moving pocket.
THE LAMAR JACKSON FACTOR
This is an important game for Lamar Jackson. He’s going to win his second MVP award, but he’s won only one playoff game. He’s 1-3 in postseason, including 0-2 in the divisional round. Naturally, the Texans are hoping he’ll be feeling the pressure and make mistakes he doesn’t usually make in regular season. They sacked him four times in the first game of the season. He threw an interception and lost a fumble.
This season, Jackson threw 24 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. His rating was 102.7. He was sacked 37 times. He’s still an outstanding runner, leading the Ravens with 821 yards and a 5.5 average to go with five touchdowns. Under first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Jackson looks to pass first and run second. He has better receivers than any time in his career.
Unfortunately for Jackson, he won’t have back injured tight end Mark Andrews. Tight end Isaiah Likely has become an inviting target for him. Jackson likes to throw to his tight ends down the middle of the field. He’s also got rookie Zay Flowers and veteran Odell Beckham Jr. on the outside.
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When the MVP award is announced next month before the Super Bowl, Jackson will be a two-time winner. By the time he receives that award, if he hasn’t won multiple playoff games, it’ll be disappointing and surprising.
STOPPING RAVENS’ RUNNING GAME IMPERATIVE
The Ravens always have balance because coach John Harbaugh demands it. They finished sixth in offense (370.4 yards), including first in rushing (156.5). Their leading rushers are Lamar Jackson (821) and Gus Edwards (810). Edwards has rushed for 13 touchdowns. The Ravens have 26 touchdowns rushing, and they’ve allowed only six.
The Texans finished sixth in run defense (96.6). They allowed 3.5 yards a carry, second in the league. They went into the last regular season game at Indianapolis third (88), but the Colts hammered them for 227, including 188 by Jonathan Taylor. Rather than a preview of what was to come, that Cleveland performance turned out to be a mirage because they shut down the running game. The Texans surrendered 56 yards rushing, including 2.8 a carry.
The difference, of course, is the quarterbacks. Joe Flacco is a statue who’s no threat to run. Jackson is one of the best running quarterbacks in history. He had 38 yards rushing in the victory over the Texans in the first game of the season. The Texans have to contain Jackson. They’ll try to keep him in the pocket. They could have a linebacker spy on Jackson, probably Blake Cashman or Christian Harris, both of whom are coming off great performances against the Browns.
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RUNNING GAME TAKES PRESSURE OFF STROUD
The Ravens are sixth in defense (301.4 yards), including 14th against the run (109.3). The Texans have struggled to run the ball all season because of injuries in the offensive line and issues switching to the zone scheme that’s created problems.
What the Texans know is they’re 6-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards and 3-0 when Devin Singletary reaches triple digits. Unfortunately for them, getting 100 yards has been difficult.
What offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik should consider is a couple or three designed runs by C.J. Stroud. Stroud can run when he needs to, but he prefers to pull up and throw the ball to receivers he sees open. If he rolls out, and the Ravens are waiting for him to pass, which is his tendency, he might be able to catch them off guard by taking off. That might loosen them up. Slowik likes to use end-around runs to Xavier Hutchinson to try to keep the front seven off balance.
If he rolls out, and the Ravens are waiting for him to pass, which is his tendency, he might be able to catch them off guard by taking off. That might loosen them up. Slowik likes to use end-around runs to Xavier Hutchinson to try to keep the front seven off balance.
What the offense can least afford is to have the running game stuffed on first down and force Stroud into obvious passing situations on second and third down against a defense that leads the NFL in sacks and is tied for first with 31 takeaways.
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John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.