Nearly three years before Tim Lincecum was part of a dominant rotation - which included Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner - for the 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants, he nearly joined what might have been an even scarier legion of arms.
At the 2007 MLB Winter Meetings, the Giants and Toronto Blue Jays discussed a trade that would have sent Lincecum, coming off a strong rookie season, north of the border in exchange for outfielder Alex Rios.
"You know, I wouldn't say the trade was right there, because you have to go through a million of those things when you're a general manager. But this one had legs," J.P. Ricciardi, then the Blue Jays general manager, would later tell Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail.
Lincecum made 24 starts for the Giants in 2007, posting a 4.00 ERA and 3.63 FIP in his first major league action. Still, no one could predict what "the Freak" would do over the next four seasons. Between 2008-2011, Lincecum made four consecutive All-Star teams, winning back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009. Over this four-season stretch, Lincecum posted a 22.5 fWAR, the fifth-highest mark among all starting pitchers over that period.
The No. 1 pitcher, per FanGraphs, between 2008 and 2011 was Roy Halladay, who would have become Lincecum's teammate in 2008 if he had been traded to the Blue Jays. A.J. Burnett became a free agent after the 2008 season and departed for the New York Yankees, but a season of those three at the top of their rotation would have been pretty incredible. Not to mention, Jesse Litsch, Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan all were serviceable starters that same season.
Would Lincecum's presence have helped the Blue Jays to make the playoffs in 2008? It's hard to say. While the Blue Jays won 86 games in 2008 and Lincecum certainly would have improved that, three teams finished above them in the American League East that season, including the eventual American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays. With only one Wild Card spot at that time, the Blue Jays probably would have won 90+ games in 2008 with Lincecum, only to miss the postseason.
Later in the piece, Ricciardi admitted that he was unsure if trading for Lincecum would have allowed the team to keep Halladay for the entirety of his career, rather than trading him to the Philadelphia Phillies before the 2010 season. He initially seemed to think that line of thinking was missing the point, instead saying "never mind that, you'd still have Lincecum pitching in Toronto," during this 2010 interview. The Blue Jays won only 75 games in 2009, so ahead of Halladay's age-33 season, he probably would have wanted to move on to a more sure-fire contender regardless, although Riccardi would later say "it [landing Lincecum] might have changed the dynamic with Halladay."
That said, José Bautista exploded for 54 home runs in 2010, and followed that up with 43 in 2011. Edwin Encarnación began to show flashes of the player that would go on to hit over 400 career home runs in 2010 and 2011. At the very least, Lincecum would have improved the team's postseason chances in 2010, when the Blue Jays finished at 85-77.
His loss in San Francisco, of course, would have altered an entire era. Brian Sabean, then the team's general manager, admitted that the team was "desperate to build up our lineup after Barry Bonds," which made them open to the idea of potentially flipping one of their talented young arms.
The Giants weren't wrong to be desperately seeking offense. The Giants had bottom-five offenses in terms of runs scored in both 2008 and 2009. Even in 2010, the Giants weren't in the top half of the league in terms of runs scored. But savvy veteran additions like Pat Burrell, Edgar Renteria and Aubrey Huff gave the team just enough offense to ride their pitching staff to a World Series title. Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval coming of age on the sport's biggest stage didn't hurt either.
While the Giants appear to have at least entertained these discussions, Sabean added on that "our approach, frankly, was to try and get them off Tim." That never happened, and for good reason, the Giants said "thanks, but no thanks."
As far as Rios, he had a strange career. A first-round pick in the 1999 MLB Draft, Rios made two All-Star teams as a member of the Blue Jays, and also had some pretty productive years for the Chicago White Sox. Still, he never developed into the superstar that some believed he had the potential to be, meaning that if this trade had ever actually been completed, the Blue Jays would have been the clear winners.
Other Entires In This Series
- The Barry Bonds To The Braves Trade That Was Scrapped
- Andy Pettitte To The Phillies?
- Ted Williams For Joe DiMaggio?
- Mariano Rivera Was Nearly A Tiger?
- How Randy Johnson Nearly Joined Curt Schilling In Philadelphia
- How Bryce Harper Was Almost An Astro
- Alex Rodriguez Was Almost Traded For Manny Ramirez
- How The Expos Missed Out On Albert Pujols
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