(WBEN) - It was back on Oct. 30 when the United Auto Workers reached a tentative labor agreement with General Motors, capping a six-week strike between the union and Detroit's Big Three auto companies.
The deal agreed upon between the UAW and GM would need the proper ratification from union members in order to formally bring some peace to the domestic auto industry.
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However, some of the early voting results from GM workers across the country have seen some plants and Locals turning down the tentative labor agreement, sending waves of concern that the deal may end up falling through. This included the workers at the GM Tonawanda Engine Plant, voting down the agreement after voting Monday.
Workers at the GM Lockport Operations plant were expected to vote on the tentative agreement on Wednesday.
Art Wheaton from Cornell in Buffalo points to a huge difference on the demographics of the plants for the reasoning as to why some workers are voting down the deal.
"The plants that have a lot more of the higher seniority workers are more likely to vote down the agreement. The plants such as the GM components holding in Lockport are much more likely to vote yes in favor, because the gains for the lower waged workers and parts distribution or the GM components holding temps and part-timers were dramatically bigger than what the legacy workers were getting. So the Tonawanda engine plant could have voted it down based on the higher seniority groups that feel like they didn't make super big gains at the table," explained Wheaton in an interview with WBEN on Wednesday.
Auto reporter Jeff Gilbert from WBEN's sister station, WWJ in Detroit, says the number of votes turning the down the tentative agreement between the UAW and GM comes as a bit of a surprise to many.
"A lot of people thought this was a slam dunk because it had those big pay raises, cost of living adjustments, a number of workers were taken from lower pay scales to higher pay scales. But obviously, underneath it all, there is some resentment, some anger among GM workers, and quite a few are voting against it," said Gilbert in an interview with WBEN. "We hear that in many cases, it's a case of anger over Local issues, but in other cases, they would have liked to have seen more done with retirement benefits. That's one of the main issues people are speaking out about."
According to Gilbert, voting among General Motors workers should wrap up this week with results on the ratification vote becoming more clear at some point within the next few days, if not sooner.
So what kind of danger is the tentative agreement between the UAW and GM in, at this point? Gilbert says it's too close to call.
"Obviously as more Locals vote, we'll see how the trends develop, but it certainly is in a situation where it has gone from a slam dunk - this thing's gonna pass, the ratification is just a formality - to what we've got here is a true election, and we're probably going to have to wait until every vote is counted until we know for sure whether it's been ratified," he said.
While this voting process is certainly making people nervous that the deal may fall apart, Wheaton feels the sign of negotiations where workers got every penny they could from the employer is if it's close to 50%.
"51% is the benchmark for saying, you got absolutely every penny you could from the company," Wheaton explained. "So if you have a 99% ratification approval, that means the company paid way too much. If you only get 49%, that means the company didn't pay it enough, and the bargaining team didn't do enough to get a good contract. So the 50-some% is a sign they got a good deal, as much as they could get."
If the tentative agreement vote ends up being turned down by auto workers, Gilbert says it could lose out by just a handful of votes, not necessarily just being an overwhelming majority. So what happens it the deal is voted down by UAW members?
"There is no contract, they have to go back to negotiations, and the union has to decide what its strategy is. They're not yet saying what that strategy might be," Gilbert said. "They could set a deadline and try to get an amended deal by that and let workers continue on the job, or they could decide, 'Workers voted against the deal, maybe we should walk out and put more pressure on the company.' Or they could decide to do what they did earlier with the strike and just take out selected plants. I heard one person speculate that maybe the plants that have voted against the agreement might be the ones they take out on strike. But it's too early to tell, and I doubt the union is going to say what it's going to do until after the vote is done."
Wheaton agrees by saying a strike would certainly be back on the table again if the agreement between the UAW and GM is voted down. He believes that while they would reconvene at the negotiation table, it doesn't necessarily mean they will get more than what was agreed upon prior.
"If GM voted down, they're not likely to get much more at the table, because of pattern bargaining. Both Ford and Stellantis look much more likely to ratify their agreements, and the UAW is not going to be able to get much more, if anything more than what they got at Ford and at Stellantis," Wheaton explained. "So it has an impact, but it looks like both Ford workers and Stellantis workers will ratify their vote, the numbers are higher."
Will this labor agreement vote between the UAW and GM have any sort of influence with auto workers voting on their tentative agreement at Ford and Stellantis at this point? Gilbert points out that Ford had started their voting process with their agreement earlier.
"Local auto workers read the paper so they see what happens, so it could embolden some workers to vote against the deal. But at this particular point, there are a lot of yes votes at Ford. So it's looking a little more like Ford is more likely to pass," Gilbert said. "Stellantis, they just started voting, and I would imagine if GM were to vote it down, a lot of Stellantis workers would say there's something they don't like about the deal and that might impact their votes. But it's really too early to tell."