Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - A dry, quiet and cold Saturday will precede yet another swing in the winter weather across the Buffalo-Niagara region Sunday.
A moisture-ladened weather system will cross the eastern Great Lakes late Sunday through early Monday, with a widespread soaking rain, which may start as some freezing rain in some spots.
A Flood Watch is posted for ALL of Western New York
Forecasters at the National Weather Service say rainfall up to 1.5 inches could fall Sunday into Monday.
"We expect widespread, heavy rainfall to develop during the day tomorrow(Sunday), especially in the afternoon and evening," National Weather Service meteorologist John Hitchcock tells WBEN.
While there is little in the way of snow pack across the lower terrain areas, the amount of rain on top of snowmelt from the higher elevations could push several creeks and rivers to near flood stage.
The window for this occurrence for the Buffalo area creeks would be Sunday afternoon through late Monday, when falling temperatures below freezing slows runoff and allows creek and river levels to begin to fall.
For those heading to the Bills-Eagles game Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium, it will be a soggy experience. "We expect widespread, soaking rainfall, and temperatures in the 40's," Hitchcock tells us.
As the weather system`s warmer air encroaches on the region, there is a small, brief window for a wintry mix across WNY at the onset of precip Sunday afternoon, forecasters say.
Lakeshore flood potential also exists Monday and Monday night as strong winds are expected on the lakes.
Lake Effect Snow
Much colder air will fill-in across the region Monday afternoon, setting up the potential for some significant lake effect snow potential.
A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for southern Erie County and the southern tier Monday through Thursday.
Initially, winds will be southwesterly, which will likely cause the bands to form over the Niagara Frontier in the afternoon. Winds are expected to shift relatively quickly to westerly and then northwesterly through Monday night, which would place the greatest snowfall accumulations by Tuesday morning off Lake Erie south of Buffalo, into the southtowns and across the ski country.
Gusty Winds
Winds will become a factor Monday afternoon, forecasters say, with southwest to westerly winds gusting into 40 to 50 mph range, and likely higher northeast of Lake Erie in particular.
A High Wind Watch is posted for late Monday into Tuesday.
Southwest gusts early Monday would not be great for trees, especially shallow rooted trees, that may now be situated within a soggy ground. Additionally these winds, combined with the lake effect snow will create blowing and drifting snow, with very poor visibility expected within the lake effect snow bands by Monday evening.
Lake Seiche Possible
While our region has had several lake seiches recently to just over 6 feet, a much stronger wind flow is expected to bring a seiche on Lake Erie, potentially to warning levels (8 feet). A coastal flood watch has been issued to account for this potential. One factor that may back it tough for lake level rises is the lake level is currently below normal. But given the strength of this system, even the low lake level will still have potential for exceeding warning level. Flooding is possible along Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor and Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor, and other flood prone locations.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
The greatest threat for flooding will be along the Buffalo area creeks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Widespread rainfall totals of 1-1.5 inches are expected within the watch area. Locally higher amounts are possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 7 inches possible.
Winds could gust as high as 60 mph creating blowing and drifting snow along with reducing visibilities to near whiteout at times.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties.
* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult in deep snow covered roads and poor visibilities. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow is expected oscillate several times east of Lake Erie through the region for this long duration event.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be possible.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible.
* WHERE...Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, and Chautauqua Counties.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down trees and power lines.
Shallow rooted trees in a saturated ground will be more susceptible to falling. Scattered power outages are possible.
Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Strong winds will blow around unsecured objects, including outdoor holiday decorations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southerly winds will gust 45 to 55 mph in favorable downslope areas, including the Chautauqua Ridge to the Lake Erie shoreline first, late Sunday night, with winds quickly veering to southwest and increasing in speed Monday behind a cold front.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates. Secure or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of the strong winds.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
* WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding possible.
* WHERE...Lake Erie shore of Erie and Chautauqua counties.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...The rapid rise in water levels at the eastern end of Lake Erie may result in lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie shore. Flooding is possible along Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor and Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor, and other flood prone locations. Very high wave action may also result in significant shoreline erosion.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Lakeshore Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for lakeshore flooding are expected to develop. Residents on or near the shore should take action to protect property, and listen to local radio, television, or NOAA Weather Radio for later statements or warnings.