Toronto it is. The combination of the Bruins losing to the Senators, 3-1, Tuesday night and the Panthers beating the Maple Leafs, 5-2, means Boston is the two-seed in the Atlantic Division and will face three-seed Toronto in a best-of-seven first-round series. Game 1 is expected to be Saturday at TD Garden (time TBD). (UPDATE: Game 1 is now confirmed for 8 p.m. Saturday.)
Gresh & Fauria preview Bruins-Leafs with WEEI Bruins insider Scott McLaughlin
Florida leapfrogged the Bruins to win the division and will face the Lightning in the other first-round series on the Atlantic side of the bracket. Over in the Metropolitan Division, the Rangers and Capitals meet in one series, while the Hurricanes will take on the Islanders in the other.
Here are five initial thoughts on Bruins-Leafs:
1. Be careful what you wish for
The consensus among Boston fans and media was that Toronto would be an easier first-round matchup than Tampa Bay. So, everyone should be happy that the Bruins lost their final two games and got the Leafs, right?
Listen, I get it. The Bruins have owned the Leafs in the playoffs, winning first-round series against them in 2013, 2018 and 2019 – in seven games each time. The Leafs have also choked away winnable series against the Blue Jackets, Canadiens and Lightning in recent years. Even last year, while they finally got over the first-round hump by beating Tampa, they got smoked by the Panthers in five games in the second round.
The Bruins also won all four meetings with Toronto this season, adding to the notion that Boston simply has their number. Maybe they do. All I’ll say is, be careful what you wish for.
The Leafs are a dangerous team, and the past often means very little come the playoffs. The Lightning had Toronto’s number, too, until they didn’t last spring. 2013 was an eternity ago in hockey years. Those 2018 and 2019 series at least featured key players who are still left on both rosters, but no one can really think that something that happened five years ago means much now.
Two of their meetings this season were before Christmas. Every player would tell you that’s irrelevant at this point, too. The two meetings in March are at least a little more relevant, and the Bruins did dominate those two games, winning both by identical 4-1 scores just three days apart.
Even with those two losses, though, the Leafs have had a very good second half. They have the sixth-best record in the NHL since the All-Star break (21-11-2) and lead the league in both overall offense and 5-on-5 scoring in that time. They also have the second-best 5-on-5 goal differential (+29) in that time, and the sixth-best (+34) for the season overall.
5-on-5 success is often (though not always) a predictor of playoff success, and the Leafs have had it. The Lightning, on the other hand, have not. They rank 27th in 5-on-5 goal differential for the season (-22) – 23rd since the All-Star break (-9). The Bruins, by the way, are fourth for the season (+39), but 15th since the break (+5).
2. How do the Bruins match up against the Leafs’ stars?
The Leafs are a great 5-on-5 team because their stars are great 5-on-5 players, led by Auston Matthews. Matthews’ 69 goals this season (with one game still to go) are 12 more than anyone else in the league and the most by any player since Mario Lemieux hit that number in 1995-96. His 51 even-strength goals are 10 more than anyone else and the most since Teemu Selanne had 52 in 1992-93.
Matthews can score from anywhere, possessing an elite shot from distance as well as a willingness to go to dirty areas at the net-front. He is also a very good defensive center who will almost certainly get some Selke Trophy consideration this season. Few players in the league can challenge Matthews’ 200-foot dominance.
Matthews often plays on a line with Mitch Marner (85 points in 68 games). Toronto’s second line features William Nylander (98 points) and John Tavares (63 points). How the Bruins match up against both, but especially the Matthews line, will be crucial. They no longer have the ultimate neutralizer in Patrice Bergeron.
Now, the key might be Brandon Carlo. Carlo played 31:22 against Matthews at 5-on-5 this season (third-most on the team), and did the best job of keeping him in check. The Bruins broke even in goals (1-1) and scoring chances (13-13) during those shifts, and actually had an 8-3 advantage in high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. With pretty much anyone else on the ice, the Bruins were playing with fire, with chances lopsided in Matthews and the Leafs’ favor.
Carlo suffered a late-season injury scare on Monday and did not play Tuesday, but Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said he will be good to go for Game 1.
3. The goaltending on both sides will be fascinating
What the Bruins do in net is going to be fascinating enough on its own. Is it Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman for Game 1? Do they rotate from there or ride one guy? If they do rotate, how long does it last?
Regardless of what head coach Jim Montgomery and goalie coach Bob Essensa decide to do, the Bruins should have the advantage in goal. As they painfully learned last year, “should have” and “will have” are two different things. But on paper, going in, the Bruins get the check.
That’s because the Leafs once again have the same kind of goaltending questions that they seemingly always have. Ilya Samsonov was supposed to be the clear No. 1 this season, but his struggles (.890 save percentage) opened the door for Joseph Woll and Martin Jones to challenge him.
No one has been all that good. Jones has fallen out of favor, as he hasn’t played since March 23. Woll looked like the guy earlier in the season, but he’s 4-6-0 with an .890 save percentage since the All-Star break. It now appears the job is Samsonov’s once again. They have at least been winning his starts, as he’s 15-4-2 since the break, but he still has a sub-.900 save percentage during that time.
Then there’s also Matt Murray, who hasn’t played all season after double hip surgery but is now on a conditioning stint with the AHL Marlies. He hasn’t played an NHL game in over a year and wasn’t putting up very good numbers the last time he was, so I guess we’ll see where that ends up.
4. So will the special teams
With all that offensive talent, the Maple Leafs must have a lethal power play, right? Well… sometimes. They’re seventh in the NHL for the season as a whole at 24.3%, but they have struggled mightily down the stretch. Since March 1, they are just 9-for-69 (13.0%) on the man advantage.
That is actually worse than the Bruins in the same timeframe, as they’re at 17.9% (10-for-56). And we know how brutal Boston’s power play has been recently, going 2-for-30 over the last 11 games going into Tuesday night. It did look better Tuesday with a new-look top unit that featured Kevin Shattenkirk quarterbacking instead of Charlie McAvoy, going 1-for-2 against Ottawa.
The Leafs have also been struggling on the penalty kill, killing off 75.3% of opponents’ power plays since March 1. That puts them in the bottom third of the NHL in both special teams units over the last month and a half. The PK issues have been a season-long struggle, as Toronto ranks 23rd on the year.
The Bruins have at least gotten their PK back on track down the stretch, clicking at 85.7% since March 1 (4th in NHL). They also killed off 10 of 11 Toronto power plays in the regular-season series this year.
Will either team be able to get their power play going in this series? It certainly feels like something that could swing the series if one of them does.
5. Look inside for Bruins offense
One area where the Bruins had not been good enough in recent years was getting to “inside ice” in the offensive zone and getting greasy goals off rebounds and deflections.
According to tracking data from All Three Zones, the Bruins ranked outside the top 20 in rebound and deflection chances in each of the previous two seasons – yes, even during last year’s historic season. That problem got magnified in the playoffs, as that is often where games are won and lost.
Well, guess what? The Bruins have been a lot better at getting rebound and deflection chances this season. According to All Three Zones, they have climbed all the way up to sixth this season.
That is a credit to an organizational shift in philosophy that has been preached by Don Sweeney and Jim Montgomery since Day 1 of training camp. Sweeney brought in beefier forwards who fit the mold, and Montgomery has mandated that two forwards be at or moving towards the net at all times in the offensive zone.
Those changes were not made for the regular season, though. They were made for the playoffs. Now it’s time to see if they pay off when it matters most. The Leafs have been good, not great, at defending such chances, ranking 12th in rebound and deflection offense allowed.
At the other end of the ice, though, the Bruins’ own net-front defense is going to need to be better than it’s been much of the season. They give up 11.42 5-on-5 high-danger chances per game, which ranks 24th in the NHL and 16th among 16 playoff teams. The Leafs create the third-most high-danger chances. That’s not a formula for success, so the Bruins must find a way to change the formula.