Have you heard? The Patriots sit at the top of AFC East, they’re on a three-game win streak with two more favorable matchups on the horizon, and the NFL trade deadline is just three weeks away.
Wouldn’t now be the perfect time to trade for A.J. Brown, the superstar receiver who looks miserable down in Philly?
No. Actually, it’s not even a good time for that particular move.
On its face, a reunion between Brown and Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel looks like it makes a lot of sense. Brown got his feet wet in the NFL with Vrabel as his head coach in Tennessee back in 2019, and helped lead the Titans to the AFC Championship game, then two subsequent playoff appearances. Despite getting traded to the Eagles in 2022, both guys have very recently expressed mutual respect and admiration for one another.
It looks very much like A.J. Brown is suffering in Philadelphia’s Super Bowl hangover this season. He’s compiled just 274 yards through six weeks and he’s posting cryptic messages on social media – the NFL-version of casting up the bat signal for “get me out of here.” And after years of missing out on free agent wide receivers like Calvin Ridley for greener pastures, a 28-year-old with five 1,000+ seasons under his belt is awfully tempting for a Patriots team who’s now on the up-and-up. It’s understandable how one could get swept up in New England’s success and want to further supercharge Drake Maye’s progress with a target like Brown.
But at what price? NFL Media insiders Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo dropped a series of trade deadline notes over the weekend, and included this telling nugget regarding Philadelphia:
“Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has never met a trade he wouldn't consider, and don't be surprised if he looks for some help on defense. A cornerback or edge would make sense.”
Let’s take Christian Gonzalez off the table, assuming he’s too big a target even for this trade. The Patriots are still not in a position to trade Carlton Davis nor Harold Landry for a receiver. They’re far too thin at both cornerback and edge. The lack of depth behind the pricey starters on this roster may be one of two Achilles heels for this suddenly-exciting Patriots team. Plus, it’s not as though the Patriots have developed into a formidable defense, (though not for lack of effort). Their own passing game is exciting. But through six weeks, their defense has allowed opponents the eighth-most passing yards per game – an average of 239 yards.
Brown won’t solve the team’s other big weakness: its running game. The Patriots had just 73 rushing yards, and averaged 2.4 yards per carry last Sunday. Those weak numbers came against a Saints team who entered the game with the 20th ranked rushing defense. Against the Bills, the Patriots posted just 71 yards. The only game in which Patriots runners have averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry was the Miami game, (league average is 4.2), and the Dolphins are one of – if not the – worst run defenses in the NFL.
There are no clear-cut solutions to the run game issues inside the Patriots locker room. TreVeyon Henderson continues an uphill battle transitioning from the college game to the pros, and Rhamondre Stevenson looks so (justifiably) terrified of fumbling, his yards averaged after contact are at a career-low of 1.8 per carry.
The passing game has actually become the Patriots’ calling card. They rank sixth in passing yards per game, (244.5) and third in yards per pass attempt, (8.5 through six games, and a whopping 10 over the past three wins).
That success has come through Maye spreading the ball around, rather than relying on just one ultra-talented receiver. Kayshon Boutte has had two career performances this year and Stefon Diggs had back-to-back 100+ receiving yard days to kick off this win streak. Even DeMario Douglas, who had struggled to produce through the first five games, put up 71 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Saints. Reaping the benefits as a whole week-by-week has generated buy-in from the receivers’ room.
“That just helps us to take our selfish mindset away. I feel like that’s been helping me a lot,” Douglas told WEEI last week. “Once you’re playing for the next man beside you, like coach said, playing longer than the guy with the ball, that just shows the brother we have. How close we are. Man, we’re going out there, making that extra block for the next guy to hopefully get in the endzone or extra yards. It just means a lot to us.”
Why compromise a chemistry like that, for a part of the game that’s working? A.J. Brown is an elite player, but even before considering further draft capital that would have to be extended, or the price of his actual contract, it’s worth considering if he really solves the issues this imperfect team has. And right now, he’s not the answer.