To be clear, it will not be a classic NFL matchup Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium when a pair of 1-3 teams, the Patriots and the Lions, duke it out with the Duke in hand.
But much the way Forrest Gump’s mom described life, New England and Detroit might just be like a box of chocolates, because as media and fans it’s hard to say what we’re going to get from this early October game that’s critical for both teams if they plan on playing even relatively meaningful football the rest of the still-young season.
Obviously the Patriots have been 1-3 before and still made the playoffs, because that’s exactly what happened just a year ago when New England won eight of its next nine after the slow start to return to postseason play.
Like a year ago, Bill Belichick’s team is hitting the supposed 6-game soft spot on this year’s schedule, a time to make hay to get back into playoff contender conversation with action against the Lions, Browns, Bears, Jets (twice) and Colts.
Forget whether the Patriots are better than their 1-3 record, could have won every game they played to date or any other kind of talk radio-worthy discussion. New England is at home hosting a one-win opponent that fields the worst defense in the NFL, one that statistically is on pace to rank as one of the worst in the history of the game.
Opportunity is certainly knocking, but will the Bailey Zappe-led squad be able to answer that call at the Gillette Stadium door?
That’s honestly really hard to say, and more so than just for the cliché “any given Sunday” nature of the NFL. That this game feels like such a toss-up, such an unpredictable endeavor really might just tell us all we need to know about New England in 2022.
In Detroit they’ve been circling this game since the schedule was announced, a chance to face former head coach Matt Patricia, though the Lions likely didn’t envision their previous boss and now foe as the offensive play-caller that he’s become in New England. And even if this weren’t some sort of “Matt Patricia revenge game,” Dan Campbell’s coaching style provides emotional motivation that’s inherent with any team he’s part of, including this pride of Lions.
Similarly the Patriots have proven their mettle in recent weeks, fighting the good fight to the finish regardless of the spot or how good a team they end up being in the end.
Make no mistake a Lions team that earned the No. 1 overall pick in last April’s draft with a three-win season is coming to Foxborough looking to prove something, treating the fight with these Patriots like it’s a measuring stick opportunity against THE Patriots.
Neither the Lions (minus-1) nor Patriots (minus-3) stack up very well in the critical area of turnovers, sitting on the wrong side of the ledger a full month into the season, where sub-par NFL squads reside.
Injuries are a key factor with both teams playing without key cogs on offense. New England will turn to a backup quarterback for the second-straight week and is trying to get No. 1 receiver Jakobi Meyers back in the mix, while Detroit is likely to play without top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and top running back D’Andre Swfit for the second time in as many games.
The Patriots will also likely be without defensive tackle and captain Lawrence Guy as it faces a potent rushing attack with a run defense that’s struggled in recent weeks.
Jared Goff is leading a Lions’ offense that’s tops in the NFL, a unit that’s topped 35 points in three of its four games. This is not the feeble Goff that Belichick’s Patriots emasculated in the Super Bowl. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions and has a passer rating a hair under 100 on the season, even if he’s not winning games thanks in large part to a defense that’s allowed at least 27 points every time it’s stepped on the field this fall.
It’s all so up in the air. Not the kind of rare air that made old-school battles between the Patriots and Colts or Ravens or Steelers or Chiefs so much fun. This is more of a mediocre-at-best air. Two teams scuffling as they try to find themselves early in the year, maybe only to find they simply aren’t all that good.
Who are these Lions? More importantly in these parts, who are these Patriots? And is New England closer to Detroit these days than anyone in Patriot Nation would like to admit?
Are the Patriots in a must-win situation, ready to pounce on the Lions and defend their territory? Or is New England a wounded team led by a backup QB ill-prepared for the situation he finds himself in, the type of opponent with “one ass cheek and three toes” that Campbell famously professed this offseason that he and his team would happily beat?
Is this going to be a battle between two competitive teams backed into a corner by their early records, ready to turn toward winning ways starting this Sunday?
Or are the Patriots and Lions, as Tom Brady described it this week, one of the many NFL teams who’ve earned their mediocre or worse records by playing “a lot of bad football.”
Detroit has been in this position, this type of game many times before. Sadly, this is a new world for the Patriots, one they are stuck in at until they prove they don’t belong.
Patriots vs. Lions has the makings of a competitive, unpredictable and maybe even entertaining battle. That much we know.
That, in and of itself, may be the sad reality of these Patriots.
Unless they prove otherwise with this would-be, get-right opportunity on Sunday at Gillette.
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