It's trade deadline season
The idea that the Dodgers would need any sort of late-July help after their shock-and-awe offseason seemed implausible a few months ago. And the motivation to keep that narrative alive and well heading into the trade deadline continued to serve as the champs' North Star.
"We don't want to trade really good prospects at the deadline," Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast before spring training. "We will do it when necessary, but the goal is not have to buy in July because the prices are two or three X what they normally are. So if we set up a really talented team that also has depth, the goal is when you're in July your team is good enough to win the World Series and you don't need to make additions. If you have to, you do and you evaluate how you need to improve. But that is not the goal. You want to get to July with the mindset that we don't have to make a move."
Sounds good, right?
But once again, a baseball team's best-laid plans almost never land in July untouched. Just like last season, the Dodgers are living that life, as is every other contending team in baseball ... including the Red Sox.
So, with the Sox having revitalized their season and firmly entrenched themselves in the world of a buyer at the trade deadline, there are questions being asked. Some of the answers are obvious. Others, not so much.
LET'S CUT TO THE CHASE: DO THEY HAVE A SHOT AT JOE RYAN?
The Red Sox love the Minnesota starting pitcher. They have for a while. When the Twins dipped their toes in the Triston Casas conversation this past offseason, Ryan was at the top of the Sox's lists of asks.
The front office likes him. The manager likes him. The players in the Red Sox clubhouse like him. There's one problem: The Twins also like him.
That "two or three X" Gomes was talking about when identifying how inflated trade deadline costs are at the deadline might as well be "four X" for a player like Ryan. It is Dylan Cease from two years ago, and Garrett Crochet last deadline. There will be two more years of control for Ryan after this season at a relatively reasonable price (he is making $3 million this season), which was the same position both Cease and Crochet were in.
The uncomfortable reminder for the Red Sox during those pursuits of those pitchers were asking prices that included Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and other teams it would now seem implausible to trade. The same would go for Ryan.
The Twins say they aren't intending to deal Ryan, which is the exact tact that makes sense. Hey, if a team wants to come in and offer up a sweetened Crochet package, then maybe Derek Falvey's ears will perk up. Like is one thing, love is another. When it comes to Ryan and the Red Sox, that's what we're going to be reminded of.
IS IT REALISTIC TO HOPE FOR A TOP-OF-THE-ROTATION PITCHER?
Finding the controllable, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher at the trade deadline isn't all that realistic. Just look at the past two deadlines.
The biggest starting pitching name that wasn't in a contract year last season was Zach Eflin, who was sent to Baltimore for three prospects (none of which have cracked Tampa Bay's Top 10 MLB Pipeline prospect ranking). Rentals? Sure. There were a few. Yusei Kikuchi went to Houston from Baltimore for a package of players (Jake Bloss, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido). The Tigers - who had a 1.3 percent chance of making the postseason at the deadline - sent Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for what is now Detroit's fifth-ranked prospect (Tierohn Liranzo) and a defensive shortstop (Trey Sweeney).
The Padres got nine good starts from Martin Perez for a minor-leaguer who currently owns a 6.85 ERA in rookie ball. Michael Lorenzen, another rental, was also a solid pickup for the Royals, only costing up-and-down reliever Walter Pennington.
There were instances of teams trying to swing semi-big only to dramatically whiff, as was the case when Baltimore targeted Trevor Rogers, giving up Connor Norby and breakout star Kyle Stowers.
The point is that it isn't easy to find that pitcher one feels can slide into the top of a rotation. Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow identified such a player - which his team is prioritizing - as the toughest skillset to acquire at the deadline, and he's not wrong. It's a reality Arizona uncovered two years ago when desperately looking for help at the deadline, only to find itself having to throw a bullpen game in the World Series.
The point is that such an acquisition is not easy. Heck, even the ultra-aggressive Dave Dombrowski needed to "settle" for a starter in Nathan Eovaldi in 2018. And while the move worked out, some in the front office at the time weren't keen on dealing Jalen Beeks for that level of starter. A year later, it was Andrew Cashner Dombrowski who was forced to take a flier on.
Nope, not easy. Not easy at all.
SO, WHO ARE THE REALISTIC TRADE TARGETS?
Starting with the notion that we still shouldn't totally dismiss the idea of Joe Ryan-induced aggression, there will be some intriguing possibilities on the table for the Red Sox if they are truly willing to pay a price.
Sandy Alcantara (Miami): Tons of upside. Not tons of good outings this season. The perceived top-of-the-rotation starter hasn't lived up to his hype, leaving any team interested in acquiring the 29-year-old having to do so with significant risk. He is under team control through 2027, with his contract maxing out at $20 million.
Mitch Keller (Pirates): There was a reason Pittsburgh committed a five-year, $77 million extension to the righty. He's good. Joe Ryan good? Probably not. But the kind of good that suggests he could be postseason worthy. He is locked up through 2028.
Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): The postseason-tested Kelly is in the final year of his contract and is doing everything he can to make some money after 2025. He has given up just one run in each of his last two starts, and he has the playoff pedigree that piques teams' interest.
Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks): Ditto for this guy ... except for recent successes. It appeared Gallen was on the verge of turning around a rough season until his most recent outing. Still, the flashes he showed in early July might be enough to make teams prioritize what Gallen represented in the previous two seasons.
Jose Soriano (Angel): When he is good, he is very good. When he isn't, it can be ugly. But the upside of the 26-year-old is why the Red Sox have been asking around about a pitcher who still has three more years of arbitration eligibility.
Adrian Houser (White Sox): Houser has been an out-of-nowhere success story in Chicago, totaling a 1.56 ERA in nine starts since being picked up by the White Sox. He is very, very cheap and will hit free agency after this season.
Jeffrey Springs (A's): The former Red Sox (remember that?) is dealing once again, this time serving as the A's best starting pitcher. He is under control through 2027, with a deal that will pay him $15 million in that final season.
Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers) and Chris Sale (Braves): Perfect fits for the Red Sox? Probably. Eovaldi almost came to Boston in the offseason, so you know how the Red Sox view him. And while Sale won't be ready to pitch until mid-to-late August, the idea of him slotting into the rotation when it counts the most should be ultra-intriguing. But ... In the case of both pitchers, their value to their respective teams stretches beyond this season. Eovaldi is signed with Texas for two more years, and the Braves have an option on Sale for 2026.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE PROSPECTS?
Here is another dose of reality based on the last couple of trade deadlines: Trading minor leaguers in useful deals rarely hurts.
The more painful players for buyers to look back at the last two seasons have been Stowers and Cole Ragans, who were dealt from Texas to Kansas City for Aroldis Chapman. (Texas did, however, win a World Series.)
But if you look back at the deals made, it's hard to find prospects sent packing who are likely going to be true difference-makers. The deals for Eflin and Kikuchi don't seem like they are going to all that agonizing for the Orioles and Astros, respectively. The same goes for the Dodgers when it came to the Flaherty deal.
Tanner Scott. Lucas Erceg. Randy Arozarena. Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman. All players who helped their respective new teams after being dealt at the deadline. And all trades that ultimately didn't see notable returns.
There were some interesting names who might be worthy of keeping an eye on, such as minor-leaguer Alex Clemmey, who was just in the Futures Game for the Nationals after coming over in the Lane Thomas deal. And Agustin Ramirez - who switched teams in the Jazz Chisholm trade - has been solid with 14 homers as the Marlins' new catcher.
The lesson: Don't be afraid. The reward too many times is making teams ultimately forget about the risk. Hear that, Red Sox?