It has been a quarter of a century since the last AFC East title for the Buffalo Bills. It was the 1995 season when the Bills finished with a 10-6 record and beat out the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) and Miami Dolphins (9-7) to win the division for the sixth time in eight years.
Since the 1995 season, the Bills have made the playoffs just five times and have gone winless in all five contests. Also in that time, the New England Patriots have dominated the division with 19 AFC East titles, followed by two titles each for the Dolphins and New York Jets, and even a division title for the Colts in 1999.
At the halfway point of the 2020 season, the Bills are in line to win the AFC East title with a 6-2 record for a second-consecutive year. If they manage to maintain pace and win the division, the Bills will host a playoff game at Bills Stadium in Orchard Park for the first time since 1996.
Looking at the rest of the division, the Jets sit dead in the water in last place in the entire NFL, remaining as the only winless team at 0-8. As for the Patriots, the tides have changed with Tom Brady now gone as the team has lost four straight games and are sitting at 2-5.
The only other team in the division, Miami, has had a nice stretch of success with three straight wins to put themselves at 4-3. The 2020 season started 1-3 for the Dolphins, which included a 31-28 loss to the Bills in Week 2 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Since a Week 4 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, the Dolphins have gone on to out-score their opponents 95-34, thanks, in large part, to the play of their defense coming alive. The offense has been productive, in this stretch, but still remain as one of the lowest-productive teams in the league.
Just last week at home, the Dolphins decided to give the reigns to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who made his first NFL start against the Los Angeles Rams. Tagovailoa was relatively ineffective all day, going just 12-of-22 for 93 yards and a touchdown, but the defense stood out with two interceptions and three forced fumbles, one of which was returned for a 78-yard touchdown.
With the Dolphins just 1.5 games back of the Bills in the AFC East, how much of a threat are they for the division title going into the second half of the season?
Going into Week 9, both teams are set for tough matchups with the top teams in the NFC West. The Bills are getting set to host the Seahawks (6-1) in Orchard Park at 1 p.m. EST, while the Dolphins are in Arizona to take on the Cardinals (5-2) at 4:25 p.m. EST.
Between now and the teams' Week 17 scheduled matchup at Bills Stadium on Jan. 3, 2021, their schedules could very much play a factor into the outlook of the division.
Here's a rundown of each team's remaining schedule:
Buffalo Bills (6-2):
Week 9: vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-1)
Week 10: at Arizona Cardinals (5-2)
Week 11: BYE Week
Week 12: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-5)
Week 13: at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Week 14: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0)
Week 15: at Denver Broncos (3-4)
Week 16: at New England Patriots (2-5)
Miami Dolphins (4-3):
Week 9: at Arizona Cardinals (5-2)
Week 10: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-5)
Week 11: at Denver Broncos (3-4)
Week 12: at New York Jets (0-8)
Week 13: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1)
Week 14: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-1)
Week 15: vs. New England Patriots (2-5)
Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders (4-3)
The Bills definitely have the toughest remaining schedule between the two teams, where they will face teams that are a combined 31-21. Buffalo, arguably, has one of the toughest remaining schedules for any team in the entire NFL.
Miami's road to Week 17 against the Bills has its challenges, but the Dolphins will face teams with a combined 25-33-1 record. Their toughest teams remaining on the schedule are the Cardinals and Chiefs, with the Broncos and Raiders also bringing some tough competition later in the season.
Where the Bills have a benefit in their schedule is the bye week in Week 11. This will allow Buffalo a chance to rest up and recuperate after two tough matchups with the Seahawks and Cardinals back-to-back.
If Buffalo can get wins over teams like the Chargers, a banged-up 49ers squad, the Broncos and the Patriots in Week 16, Buffalo will sit with at least 10 wins heading into their final game of the season with the Dolphins. Any added wins here and there would certainly be beneficial for their chances at closing out the division.
The Bills will also need better performances in prime time, as they are scheduled to play the 49ers on Monday Night Football, the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, the Patriots on Monday Night Football, and possibly the Broncos in Week 15. Buffalo is 0-2 so far in prime time this season against the Tennessee Titans and Chiefs, and are just 1-4 in prime time games in Sean McDermott's tenure as head coach.
If Miami can get wins in the games they're likely favored in with the Chargers, Jets, Bengals and Patriots, they will have at least eight wins. They could also be favored in games against the Broncos and Raiders, depending on how the chips fall as the season progresses, which would then get the Dolphins to 10 wins as well.
As long as the Dolphins don't implode in this second half of the season, they should be in contention for a Wild Card spot in the AFC Playoffs. However, with their favorable schedule, it is entirely possible that Week 17 in Orchard Park could be a meaningful game for the AFC East title.
So how do the Bills need to turn things around in order to avoid this scenario?
First, the offense needs to regain its form from the first four weeks of the season. The Bills have made the transition from a run-heavy team to a modern day passing offense in 2020, but the numbers have been steadily declining over the past four weeks.
In the first four games this season, the Bills were averaging 316 passing yards per-game with a 12-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an average of 30 points per-game. Over the last four games, the offense is averaging just 210 passing yards per-game with a 4-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an average of just 18 points per-game.
Josh Allen has remained as one of the top passers in the NFL despite his struggles in the last four games, but he will need to regain his play from the opening four games that put him in early conversations for NFL MVP.
Even though Buffalo has become more of a passing team, the run game has stepped up in recent weeks, running for 190 yards last week against New England and 126 yards the week before against the Jets.
The Bills will need to find ways to keep advancing the ball down the field and score some points, especially against teams like the Seahawks, Cardinals, Chargers and Broncos, who all average more yards-against per-game than Buffalo. The two best defenses the Bills will face in the final stretch of the season are the Steelers and 49ers, who rank fifth and sixth in the league respectively.
As for the defense, it needs to find a way get off the field faster and allow the offense to go to work and move the ball down the field. Buffalo averages 358.1 yards-against per-game, which is in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league. However, the run defense has been its weakest asset, giving up an average of 134.5 yards per-game. That's the seventh-worst mark in the NFL.
The Bills need to find answers defensively and fast, especially with the Cardinals, Chargers and Seahawks as the top-three offensive groups in the NFL, respectively. The 49ers are the only other team in the NFL they will face that average more offensive yards per-game than the Bills (372.0) this season.
However, the Bills will face five teams (Cardinals, Patriots, Chargers, 49ers and Seahawks) in the top-12 of the league's average rushing yards per-game. Buffalo will also face two teams (Seahawks and Chargers) who are ahead of the Bills in the top-10 of passing yards per-game. Buffalo currently ranks 10th with an average of 263.4 passing yards per-game.
One other area the Bills will have to make a bigger impact defensively heading into the second half of the season in the turnover battle.
In 2019, the Bills turned the ball over 19 times, but managed to force more turnovers with 14 interceptions and nine fumbles recovered. While the offensive turnovers have been manageable for the Bills this season, the defense has not forced enough turnovers with just four interceptions and six fumble recoveries.
Maybe a win like last week over the Patriots, thanks to a late strip sack of quarterback Cam Newton by defensive tackle Justin Zimmer, can invigorate the defense going forward.
As for the Dolphins, their next two games will come against the top-two offenses in the NFL in yards per-game, while they also face the fourth-ranked Chiefs offense later down the road this season. Their other matchups will come against the 11th-ranked Raiders, 18th-ranked Bengals, 21st-ranked Patriots, 27th-ranked Broncos and 32nd-ranked Jets.
After facing and beating the No. 1 defense in the NFL last week, Miami will only face one other current top-10 defense in the NFL this season when they face the Chiefs in Week 14. Other than that, the Dolphins offense will face the 14th-ranked Patriots, 17th-ranked Broncos, 18th-ranked Chargers, 21st-ranked Raiders, 23rd-ranked Cardinals, 26th-ranked Jets and 27th-ranked Bengals.
At this point, it's all about keeping pace and earning the expected wins on the schedule for the Bills. If that can happen heading into the final week of the season, Buffalo may not even have to worry about the Dolphins game impacting the final outcome of the division.
However, the Bills cannot let their overall game slip anymore with the level of competition their expected to face going forward. If they leave just a sliver of light open in the doorway for Miami, the Dolphins could come storming through looking to disrupt the party.
Also, stay healthy and get the guys who are banged up back in the lineup as soon as possible.