I don’t like how the Super Bowl sits.
Buffalo Bills life had been all fine and rosy for months. The hot start, revealing signs of division dominance. Mid-season wins over the New England Patriots, to reinforce it, then the Seattle Seahawks to earn style points. On to the homestretch and showtime wins over the San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, New England again and the Miami Dolphins to blow away the AFC East.
Two playoff wins: a nail-biter over the Indianapolis Colts, a shutdown effort against the Baltimore Ravens.
On to the championship round and oh look, the Bills are a mere three-point underdog to the Chiefs in Kansas City.
This is a Chiefs team that beat the Bills convincingly in the regular season, that had home-field advantage, that had a bye week – two if you count Week 17. A Chiefs team that last year won the Super Bowl.
All things seemed possible. This Bills team had done more than restore franchise credibility, more than smartly build a team well-positioned to stay good. It had qualified as one of four teams with a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl win.
This was no underdog, at least not any more. Three points on the road at the champs? Please.
The signs said Buffalo.
The game was all Kansas City.
What happened?
I was happy to brush it off as a great season and a close call. Got to “learn how to win”. (By the way? Barf. Did you catch the article this go-round on how San Francisco forgot how to win? What about the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers and all the other Super Bowl losers that go from second place to second division? Darn, I always seem to miss those think-pieces.)
Simply, I decided – we pretty much all decided – that Kansas City was the better team. And that was that. Get a pass rusher, or a running back, maybe a tweak otherwise here and there, and take another run at ‘em.
It was, overall, a peaceful two weeks. Then the Super Bowl happened, and now I don’t know what to think.
One reason the Bills were such a small underdog at Kansas City, such a trendy pick, is that while they were piling up blowout wins the Chiefs were just skating by, tallying one-score victories over the likes of Atlanta and Denver. Days before playing the Bills, Patrick Mahomes scoffed at criticism that the Chiefs weren’t winning by enough. “Is that a stat?!”, Mahomes said.
No, it’s not a stat. But it’s a sign. Point differential is more predictive than your record, and entering the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs hadn’t won a game by more than six points since Nov. 1. In that same span the Bills had won eight by 10 or more!
What we got, however, was Kansas City - 38, Buffalo - 24 – and it wasn’t that close. The Bills were gifted a one-yard touchdown drive in the first quarter and scored again late after the Gatorade jug had been dumped.
Hm.
It’s not too challenging to spot where it was the Bills got beat. Mahomes, on average, got rid of the ball earlier than he had in any game since Week 1, but the Bills getting little to no interior pressure allowed to work stress-free. Kansas City’s outside speed in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman abused the Bills with big plays, while tight end Travis Kelce was his usual unstoppable self.
On offense the Bills really never clicked. All year we saw an elite receiving corps get separation, through individual talent and great coaching, but in this game that went away. All their receivers, to varying degrees, were injured, and that probably contributed. Either way, the Chiefs made Josh Allen in this game look ordinary.
Fast forward two weeks to the Super Bowl and take a look at the Chiefs. Their offensive line executed a clean sheet against Buffalo, but against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it left covered in mud. Mahomes ran backwards all day, desperate to rely on magical plays (which several times he almost made). Hill and the receivers never got free of the Buccaneers’ defensive clamps, while Tampa Bay’s offense had no such trouble. So we’re back – or at least I am – to wondering just how good that Kansas City team was all along.
It’s now two wins by double-digits after Nov. 1, and ultimately a Super Bowl beatdown.
Through free agency and the draft, the Bills will attempt their fixes, same as ever. There aren’t as many holes as usual, and they’re not as glaringly obvious. Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane and the whole group of us conceded after the AFC Championship that the Bills weren’t on Kansas City’s level.
They sure weren’t on Championship Sunday. But overall, the Bills played like the better team than the Chiefs this year.
Maybe all the usual “learning to win” filler should apply. The Bills played about their two worst games of the year against the Chiefs, and there could be psychological reasons for that to go with the tactical ones. We don’t know.
What we do know is that they didn’t win. Or come close. They should’ve.