One more game and it’s all over for football in 2021.
We’ll watch the Super Bowl of 4-seeds, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams, casually classify the winner in some sort of tier of all-time champions – the winning team will be low on such lists, no matter who wins – then board a plane and fly into the offseason.
The Super Bowl is fine and all, but count me among fans who look forward to the offseason. I’ll be glad to have this game behind us and enjoy more company in offseason chatter.
Including?
Nine teams already have completed coaching transitions. Then we’ll have free agency talk, likely driven by the potential movement of at least one of the game’s top quarterback stars. Aaron Rodgers? Russell Wilson? Kyler Murray?!?!
After that, it’s the NFL Draft in late April. The real NFL “offseason” is May and June. February through April is plenty busy.
As an avid fantasy player, I so can’t wait for the offseason that I’ve already taken part in several drafts for 2022.
One is a 34-round, 28-team “superflex” (two quarterback) dynasty startup with every team named for a fast-food restaurant. (I picked my favorite, the Canadian chain Harvey’s.)
Another is one of my babies, Season 6 of “February Fix”, where we get together the day before the Super Bowl and draft for next year. Joe DiBiase and Sal Capaccio also partake in that one.
Others are best-ball drafts at the home of high stakes, FFPC.com.
"Why draft so early?", I’m sometimes asked.
Short answer: Why not?
Everybody has access to the same information. You don’t know what to do with, for example, Rodgers, because you don’t know what team he’ll be on? Well, no one else knows either. It’s really the same exercise no matter when you’re drafting: Process the information you have, lean a certain way, then decide whether to go.
In the case of Rodgers, seems to me whether he’s with the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, or maybe just an Anybody, his value should be pretty close to what it’s been for years.
Early in 2022, Rodgers has been coming in around QB8. If he’s traded to Denver or Pittsburgh, those teams have strong receivers, so you might even project him higher. If you think he’s going to retire (I do not), obviously you let someone else grab him.
Rodgers is interesting, but I’ve compiled a list of five players that I think will be more interesting to debate this year in fantasy. One is his current – and perhaps future – teammate:
Davante Adams - WR - Green Bay Packers
Adams has been good for seven years and absolutely dominant at wide receiver for four, finishing in points per-game as WR1, WR6, WR1 and WR2 from 2018-21.
He’s everything you want: Easily his team’s No. 1 target, at any and all parts of the field, including near the goal line. Adams is almost like a goal-line back in how he compiles short-yardage touchdowns.
Now 29, Adams is slated for free agency in March, and as good as he is, his prospects seem very much tied to Rodgers.
My guess would be that he’s not playing for a Rodgers-less Packers team; he’d only seem worth the investment for a team well set at quarterback. So he’s pretty safe, but he’s been going in the WR1/WR2 range for the last couple of years, and this year – at least now – it’s a tad lower.
In my ongoing FFPC $125 “Never Too Early Best-Ball” tournament (good name), he was the fifth receiver taken at pick 2.02, behind Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson.
The next several weeks will be packed with speculation about the future of the Packers’ quarterback and wide receiver stars.
Christian McCaffrey - RB - Carolina Panthers
The clear 1.01 pick of the last two years has lost that distinction after two seasons heavily shortened by injuries. McCaffrey played in only seven games in 2021, and just three the year before.
Fantasy players picking “CMC” at the top of their drafts have likely struggled to win money. Blowing the first overall pick tends to be a pretty big handicap. Players will be happy to have Jonathan Taylor as a super alternative to pick up top.
However, McCaffrey has remained the game’s top fantasy producer when on the field. He’s had his injuries, yes, but nothing that would have me assuming he’d be slowed down in 2022. Over the years, the Panthers’ coaching and quarterback situations have changed, but McCaffrey has retained his dominance.
Prominent high-stakes player Adam Krautwurst of DraftSharks had the 1.01 pick in a $125 “Never Too Early” draft of his own, and he took McCaffrey!
If that’s how you’re feeling, go for it. I wouldn’t blame you.
Deebo Samuel - “WR” - San Francisco 49ers
This is a fun one. Fitting, because Samuel is such a fun player.
Unless your league has a starting slot for “wide back”, which is how Samuel himself describes his role, he’s just your basic wide receiver who put down eight rushing touchdowns in 2021.
Not bad, eh?
You have to love this player, but at this stage, I see him being drafted too early for my taste. Why?
I wonder about how many targets I can expect him to get next year. Yes, 121 in 2021 – at a league-leading 18.2 yards per-reception, by the way – is great. But the Niners identify as a run-oriented team, one that has a running back it has shown to like in rookie Elijah Mitchell and, probably, a great runner at quarterback next year in Trey Lance. What effect this has on 49ers pass catchers will be debated.
As always these decisions come down to price, or value. Generally, fantasy players seem to love getting their hands on the 49ers, which could leave me priced out.
Travis Etienne - RB - Jacksonville Jaguars
What will Etienne be in 2022? Any idea?
The exercise here is to find the players at the center of the best debates. Etienne might be my No. 1 choice for that.
Pro: Etienne earned first round pick status from the Jaguars. Why would a team spend a high pick on a player and plan to use him in a part-time role?
Con: It’s the Jaguars. No benefit of the doubt for competence.
Pro: Etienne was an electrifying star at Clemson, giving you dreams of anything you want as a fantasy player. Catches, big plays, touchdowns… if the situation is right, he’s a potential superstar.
Con: It’s the Jaguars. Is the situation ever right?
Pros or cons, depending on your point of view: James Robinson, who is really good, is still there. Last year’s draft was frustrating to me, because Robinson was fine as their running back. Then, as a terrible team, they went and drafted Etienne.
I’m a Robinson fan, but he did tear an Achilles tendon late in the season. Cam Akers of the Rams has come back incredibly fast from the same injury, an unprecedented feat for an NFL running back. I’m an odds player, someone who would not expect the next guy to duplicate that (in this case, Robinson).
Robinson does not deter me from wanting to pick Etienne, who I chose at pick 5.06 (RB22) in my aforementioned FFPC draft. Neither does the coaching change from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson. (Seriously, could it get any worse than Meyer?)
As much as Trevor Lawrence struggled to produce fantasy points, he remains a great prospect who, by the way, was Etienne’s college quarterback.
Many will fade Etienne. Not me.
Lamar Jackson - QB - Baltimore Ravens
What a strange, difficult season it was for Jackson, his fantasy owners, and the Ravens in 2021.
At the beginning of year, Jackson was producing passing points to go with his famous rushing ability – even with injuries all over the roster, including wide receiver (rookie Rashad Bateman did not play until Week 6). Jackson then missed a game due to illness, and in Week 14 sprained an ankle early in a game against the Cleveland browns that ended his season.
Not quite, but almost a lost year.
He remains a very tempting proposition for your fantasy lineup. And now he’s been passed (or at least threatened) by other quarterbacks in the rankings – Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, namely – so he won’t cost you the third round pick he did two years ago. Now we’re usually talking Round 5 or even Round 6.
What concerns me, as a Jackson fan, is that the Ravens are sticking with offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Their passing offense continues to look almost archaic compared with AFC peers, such as the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
I like Bateman too, but what does Baltimore intend to do to augment at receiver, if anything?
Running back J.K. Dobbins missed all of last season with a knee injury. He’s a high pick who, in two years, has yet to be “the man” in that offense. Seems to me a heavy workload for Dobbins will be a priority for Baltimore this year.
Where does all of this leave Jackson, who, by the way, is waiting on a long-term contract?
For me, I’m on board with him at about QB3, behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes, which means he’ll be on some of my rosters. Burrow and Herbert are more your “flavors of the month”, and Dak Prescott and Murray are often picked ahead of Jackson, as well. Chef’s choice.
What Jackson is for sure, as with the others on this list, is a good debate.
That’s what I enjoy best of all.
