A lot of things have changed since LSU football's disastrous opener to the 2020 season, but somehow the same question lingers this time around.
Can the Tigers solve Mississippi State's air raid offense without the services of star cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.?
LSU coach Ed Orgeron termed Stingley as "very questionable" after he re-aggravated an injury from camp this week in practice. What does that mean for this year's LSU squad? Can a resurgent offense do enough to outscore the Bulldogs? After a demoralizing loss in the opener, there's a lot hanging in the balance as the Tigers open up Southeastern Conference play in Starkville.
Here are the top 3 things I'm watching for on Saturday morning.
CAN THE TIGERS WAKE UP?
An effective football team is like a well-oiled machine, but what happens when you start turning knobs and dials that haven't been used before?
That'll be the case this week, when LSU has to change up its normal scheduling to accommodate an 11 a.m. start after kicking off at 8 p.m., 7 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. for their first three games of the season.
It could be a non-issue, but it's another thing to consider for a group that's spent the past two seasons failing to clean up coverage breakdowns that have allowed for big, momentum-swinging plays nearly every week. That wasn't altogether surprising against a talented UCLA team, but similar breakdowns continued to crop up against McNeese State and Central Michigan. Those busts didn't end up hurting against an overmatched opponent, but they most likely will in SEC play.
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I'd wager that played a role in a 45-41 loss to Missouri last season, with bizarre breakdowns in coverage allowing for multiple easy scores. Here's how LSU has fared in early starts since 2016.
- 2020 (11 a.m.): L, Missouri 45, LSU 41
- 2019 (11 a.m.): W, LSU 66, Vanderbilt 38
- 2018: none
- 2017 (11 a.m.): W, LSU 33, Arkansas 10
- 2016 (noon): L, Florida 16, LSU 10
If Stingley is unable to go, LSU will rely on a combination of Eli Ricks and likely Dwight McGlothern on the outsides. If needed, Jay Ward could also shift from safety to corner, Orgeron said.
Mississippi State is an equal-opportunity offense, with six players (WRs Makai Polk, Austin Williams, Jaden Walley and Mike Heath, along with RBs Ja'quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson) already logging double-digit receptions on the season. That willingness to spread it around by QB Will Rogers will make it difficult to key on any specific targets or schemes.
Can the Tigers wake up and play sharp in a game that will test their back-end defense as much as any? I'll be drinking plenty of coffee as we find out.
IS THE GAME DECIDED IN THE TRENCHES?
When Max Johnson has had time and protection, he's been incredibly effective. After just five career starts he's already put up otherworldly numbers that include 19 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions, and 1,538 passing yards. If it wasn't for Joe Burrow going supernova in the 2019 title season, he'd be on track to rewrite LSU's record book this year.
But he's still a young quarterback and his struggles while trying to overcome shoddy protection are not unexpected. He looked particularly shaky against UCLA's pass rush in the opener, but appears to have settled down. The sophomore tied LSU's record for touchdown passes (5) in a thumping of Central Michigan.
But as the pass-rushing talent steps up entering SEC play we'll truly start to see just how much of an issue this year's starting offensive line group will become. Continuity should help, with four starting linemen returning from last year, but Orgeron said earlier this week the team still isn't sure it's found a left tackle. Cam Wire was expected to be that guy, but he's missed multiple games with injury. Despite returning to practice in a limited capacity this week, his availability won't be known until game day. Otherwise it's Garrett Dellinger and Anthony Bradford competing for that role, and the starter won't be confirmed until Saturday morning.
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The good news is Johnson's a left-handed passer, meaning the left tackle isn't protecting his blind side and breakdowns will be easier to manage if they come. It's also possible that the jitters from the opener are overblown and a simplified/sped up offensive attack could help him manage the rush.
Another fortunate element is the Mississippi State pass rush has been anything but prolific thus far when it comes to getting to the quarterback. Orgeron mentioned Jaden Crumedy and Tyrus Wheat as the two rushers he's most concerned about, but no member of the Bulldogs defense has recorded more than 1 sack after three games. LSU has been prolific in that regard, with an FBS-leading 17 total sacks. Of those, BJ Ojulari has an FBS-leading 4.5. But the Tigers have lost Anthony Bradford for the season, responsible for 3 of his own. If the game comes down to a battle in the trenches, I'd have to tip it to LSU's favor.
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WHAT'S THE DEAL AT RUNNING BACK?
The John Emery Jr. saga is still unfolding, with lawyers working tirelessly to try to get the junior running back out on the field after being ruled ineligible due to academic issues.
If he's able to get out there, it certainly sounds like he'll have a role. If he's not ... it'll again be a committee approach, based on what Orgeron said this week.
That means some combination of Ty Davis-Price, Armoni Goodwin, Corey Kiner and Josh Williams. Tre Bradford is unavailable due to injury.
Goodwin flashed against McNeese and returns after a one-game absence due to injury. The freshman appears to be the best home-run threat out of the Tigers backfield.
Davis-Price is the veteran of the group, but has had difficulty getting untracked through the first three games outside of a chunk play against an overmatched McNeese State defense. Does he continue to cede carries to another impressive freshman in Kiner?
The 5-10, 213-pound back has been far and away the most productive with his touches. On 23 carries, four fewer than Davis-Price, he's rolled up a team-leading 130 yards and a pair of touchdowns, showing power and burst. Davis-Price has only managed 72 yards on his 27 touches.
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Orgeron vowed that he's going to "play them all," but if Kiner continues to shine on both inside and outside runs as he has the last two weeks, it'll become more and more difficult to take him off the field.
And I'll leave you with this: When asked about Kiner, his coach offered a lofty comparison. He said the freshman reminds him of former star Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who helped lead the Tigers to the CFP crown in 2019. He was quick to point out the comparison was more about the personality than running style, as they're two very different backs. But if the coach is comparing you, in any way, to Edwards-Helaire ... that projects positive vibes for your ability to be trusted as a backfield leader.
Is this the week Kiner, or someone else, really takes the reins in the LSU backfield?
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Follow Jeff Nowak on Twitter @Jeff_Nowak or contact him by email at jeffrey.nowak@audacy.com