The New Orleans Saints are coming off one of the strangest wins you will ever see in the NFL. There is no question, the Saints dominated that game, and there is no question, they should have, considering the circumstances. The Saints take to the road for game two of a 3 game road stretch and head to Mercedes Benz stadium to visit the divisional rival Falcons. The Falcons are appearing to be a carbon copy of themselves in 2019. This year the Falcons started 1-6 following a 1-7 opening to their 2019 season. Last year, the Falcons went on to win 6 of their last 8 to finish a more respectable than anticipated 7-9. Now the Saints are set to take on winners in 4 of their last 6, following a resounding 43-6 victory of the Raiders team that beat the Saints in week 2. It’s led more than a few people around the country to suggest the Falcons will be a far tougher test than most believe they will be vs. the Saints.
In the first meetup between these two team’s we learned on Friday that Taysom Hill would be the starter for the Saints in the absence of Drew Brees. It was surprising for many to hear Hill would start over the more experienced Jameis Winston. While the Falcons stated they were prepared to face Hill, in reality, no one had ever seen him in the role of a true quarterback before. Hill responded with an incredibly efficient 18-23 for 233 yards. He showed poise in the pocket and a desire to stand in the pocket that few though he would have. That’s not to say Taysom didn’t also find ways to move the ball with his feet. Hill carried the ball for 43 yards including twice into the endzone. His second start was not as impressive. While the Saint dominated the quarterback-less Broncos 31-3, Hill finished the game with just 78 yards passing. He again found paydirt twice on the ground, continuing to prove his effectiveness as a red zone weapon. After the game both Hill and head coach Sean Payton stated forcefully that the game plan turned completely conservative when the Saints learned of the Broncos quarterback issues. Many have chosen to consider that an excuse. I’m not in that camp. Sean Payton is not Bill Belicheck. He is willing to offer information and honest in a press conference. He is willing to be inciteful and give us insights into his thoughts. Of course, that’s not always the case, but at this point, I’ve got a good feel for when he is being authentic. The reality, as I stated in this article last week, was that the Broncos had almost zero chance of winning a game without a quarterback. They knew that, and more importantly, the Saints knew that. There was only one way to fail to leave Denver with a victory. Allow the defense of the Broncos to outscore the offense of the Saints. The Saints decided to eliminate that possibility from contention. You saw continually, a hesitance to release the football in that game. Even during the broadcast, Deuce and I mentioned that Hill looked far more interested in avoiding mistakes, than they did in moving the football. I believe that is what happened. The passing game for both teams last week was a non-factor. The Saints were able to amass over 5 yards per carry on their way to a 229 yard rushing performance and that was all they needed to secure the victory. I doubt that will be the case this week in Atlanta.
The Falcons are and have long been an excellent offensive football team. Maybe that’s why its surprising to see this recent turnaround be fueled by the defense. After surrendering at least 299 yards passing in each of their first 7 games, the Falcons have held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 210. The Falcons front is ranked fourth in the NFL in total pressures created. And since week 6, when Morris took over, the Falcons rank 3rd in the NFL in avg. time of possession. The Saints will not have the same level of ambiguity in the offense as they did two weeks ago. There is a more defined set of skills that Taysom Hill has presented as a passer. The Broncos brought a lot of pressure and especially early, found success with it. I suspect the Falcons will do the same.
What is going to make life hard on Atlanta is the threat Taysom Hill has caused in the running game. The Saints ran for 166 yards in the first meeting between the two teams.
It was an outlier game for what is a good run defense. The problem for the Falcons is the structure of the defense verse the running game the Saints have been implementing since Taysom Hill took over at quarterback. The Falcons are an undersized, attacking front. Raheem Morris likes to use movement in the front to disrupt the running lanes. For most teams, this movement can cause a real problem. Most teams implement a heavy dose of zone schemes in their running game. Zone schemes best compliment the wide open structure of today’s passing games. You would say over the last few seasons that the zone scheme is the predominant scheme in the Saints run game as well. Not over the last two weeks. The Saints have been executing a heavy, gap scheme running game that has led to two dominating games on the ground in the past two weeks. For a team like the Falcons, their greatest weapon against the run, movement, is neutralized. They are forced to get vertical penetration in the run game or commit extra defenders to the box. When they did that in the first game, it opened huge holes in the zone coverage they played behind the box. To compound their problems further, the Saints are running gap scheme, power football with their quarterback, effectively gaining the advantage back with an extra blocker in the scheme. For a team like the Falcons, it leaves little option. Guys just have to win. That’s tough at this level. Taysom Hill’s skill set puts the Falcons in a bind. The defense does the same.
Over the past two games vs the Falcons, the Saints have amassed 17 sacks. It all stems from them leaning on their greatest strength. The Saints have had one of the top rush defenses in football over the past 3 seasons. They have dominated the Falcons run game with just their front seven in the past two games. It’s allowed them to play trail man cover 2 on the backend. It simpler terms, the Saints have allowed their corners to play tight coverage on the line of scrimmage with no concern for balls going over the top on them. The safeties roaming the back half of the field, the Saints have been able to take quick throws away from Ryan. A well executed “crunch” rush has squeezed the pocket and made Ryan uncomfortable. The Saints, Cam Jordan in particular, are a tough matchup for the Falcons front. Atlanta has coveted more athletic lineman over the past couple years that excel in the outside zone scheme they want to run. While they are good athletes, as is often the case, they struggle vs. power in the passing game. The Saints have bull rushed the line into the lap of their pro bowl quarterback. Matt Ryan has struggled to avoid that pressure and thus has spent a lot of time on the ground. If the Saints can continue to win in the run game with just their front, it will be another long day for Ryan and the Falcons.
Divisional rivalries are tricky. There is a tremendous amount of knowledge about each other available. That hasn’t seemed to helped the Falcons much against the Saints in the Sean Payton era. With a win today, Sean Payton will have defeated the Falcons 20 times, the first team he has defeated that number of times. The Saints are 19-8 vs. the Falcons with Sean Payton coaching. The Saints are aware of how important the one seed is this season with just one bye being rewarded. They can’t afford a flat effort. Ironically, the absence of Drew Brees may actually help the Saints be more focused that they may be with him. For Payton, the games are numbered in which he will be without Drew Brees. It’s about winning now. Winning just this game. I think the Saints will be willing to throw out the kitchen sink vs. their rival Falcons. I think this will be the Saints most aggressive game plan to date. Fasten your seatbelts.