There was a time in the Saints facility that we broke the season down into 4 quarters. Four mini-seasons that we had to win to finish with a record good enough to give us the one seed. At some point, that strategy shifted to 16 one game seasons. Win one game, move on. I always felt like the latter was better for players. It allowed you to really immerse yourself in each week, with focus nowhere but with the task at hand. Of course, that was when I was playing, and I don’t have to worry about that anymore.
The Saints start the fourth quarter of the season today vs. a struggling Eagles team that is in the midst of a quarterback change. They will attempt to extend their current winning streak to 10, the second longest in the Sean Payton era. The Saints also have a looming showdown with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs right around the corner. That is the type of football game that in a normal year would be buzzing the City of New Orleans for a whole week. The type of game that would create the electric atmosphere that has made the Superdome one of the iconic stadiums in the NFL. There is no question, Saints vs Chiefs is the type of game that you live for as a pro athlete.
Meanwhile, there is a game in Philadelphia. A game featuring Jalen Hurts’ first start in relief of Carson Wentz. The Eagles, who have been abysmal all season long offensively, have shelved their one hundred million dollar quarterback due to poor play and will instead set their rookie loose against a defense that has been nothing short of dominant over the past 5 games.
Related
The Saints, since week 9 have surrendered just 233 yards per game. Maybe even more impactful for a young mobile quarterback like Hurts is the stingy 55.8 yards per game given up in that same stretch on the ground. It doesn’t leave a lot of room for error for an Eagles offense that has not been good all year. So, obvious observation here is that this has all the makings of a trap game. The Eagles have a good defense and if put in more advantageous positions than they’ve grown accustomed to, they can cause problems for the Saints offense under the direction of Taysom Hill. Here is why that won’t happen.
In the NFL, the quarterback gets too much credit, and they get too much blame. It has been that way for a long time. Carson Wentz has fallen victim to that reality this year. Before the season even started, the Eagles lost Andre Dillard, Lane Johnson, Jason Peters, Brandon Brooks and Sua Opeta for the season. Dillard and Brooks before the season even began. Winning in the NFL is hard, winning without 5 of your top 6 lineman, close to impossible. It’s led to Eagles quarterbacks being sacked an NFL worst, 53 times.
How bad is that? What the Eagles have surrendered in 12 games this year, the Saints have surrendered in their last 32. It’s a near unwinnable situation for any quarterback. There may be some belief that Hurts is athletic enough to avoid some of these pressures, but he was taken down 3 times in the second half last week in his first extensive action. Plus, let’s not forget Wentz himself is an outstanding athlete. Again, it’s a tough situation when facing a Saints team that has three of the top five pressure rates in the NFL (Demario Davis 1st, Trey Hendrickson and Marcus Davenport tied for 3rd).
There are a lot of things that can cause a clearly superior team to fall to an inferior one. Teams can be out schemed, you can fall victim to turnovers, penalties or even big plays. One thing that very rarely happens, is an elite defensive line, losing to a poor offensive line. There are just no ways to account for an offensive line that can’t win one on one battles. You can leave more players in protection, but then you had better have elite receivers on the outside (the Eagles do not). You will struggle to run the ball, and you will struggle to protect. There is only one way out of the predicament. Without a pile of big explosive plays, these games almost always end in the favor of the better line. It’s why the Saints project so well for a deep playoff push.
On the other side of the ball you have a good defensive line, very capable of getting pressure on Taysom. Fletcher Cox is still one of the elite two way defensive tackles in the NFL, Brandon Graham is having his most productive pass rushing season, and Derek Barnett has been productive as well. The Eagles come into the game ranked 3rd in the NFL with 38 sacks. That has also led to a very solid 37% conversion rate against them on 3rd down.
Related
The Saints passing attack is not what we have grown accustomed too since Drew Brees arrived in 2006. That’s not to say it hasn’t been effective. The truth is, the passing game has become complimentary to the rushing attack since Taysom Hill took the reigns of this offense. For good reason. The Saints average over 200 yards a game on the ground since Hill took over. Taysom, of course, is a large component of that. He has added at least 44 yards rushing in each of his starts. That strength will bode well for today’s game. The Eagles come in ranked 25th in the NFL giving up 130 yards a game on the ground. They have had 17 touchdowns rushed against them this year. A tough number vs a Saints ground game that leads the NFL with 20 rushing TD’s. The Eagles can dominate bad offensive lines with the talent in their front four. The Saints do not have that. I think the Saints can dominate a 4th straight game on the ground.
There is a reasonable amount of concern that this has all the makings of a trap game for the Saints. The Eagles will get a boost, especially early, with the arrival of Jalen Hurts at QB. There likely will be some adjustments that must be made early once Dennis Allen gets a feel for how the Eagles will build an offense around the inexperienced Hurts. But I believe any success will be short lived. The Saints defensive front has the second most sacks since week 9 and have given up less than 60 yards on the ground.
They also lead the NFL in takeaways in that stretch and are allowing fewer than 9 points per game. It’s an incredible stretch of dominance. Today’s NFL is built to allow teams to score points. The Saints simply haven’t allowed it.
Before the 4th quarter TD vs. the Falcons, the Saints had gone 43 possessions without a drive ending in 7 points. I think that streak could restart vs. the Eagles. Philadelphia has made the decision to throw Hurts to the wolves. It makes no sense to bench a player whom you cannot release (Wentz would count over 59 million against the cap if he was released this offseason). The Eagles made this bed, and are now trying to get out of making it. Hurts will enter his first NFL start with a ragtag front protecting him, no recent history of a ground game and the NFL’s hottest defense across from him. It’s a great way to ruin a young players confidence. Jalen Hurts has proven through his college career to be a tough, resilient player. He’ll need to be this afternoon.