When the 2021 NFL schedule emerged, the first Week 18 in NFL history was already set up with rivalry showdowns sure to keep fans watching regardless of standings implications.
But I don’t think even the best-informed among us could’ve predicted the potential scenarios ahead of the Saints-Falcons that will close out the regular season. That game could very well hold the keys to a playoff spot due to division tiebreakers, without having any bearing on the actual division race itself.
Before breaking any of those items down, let’s just point out how unlikely it was that either team got to this point in the first place. The Falcons entered the season with far different issues than the Saints, but issues that appeared like they might send this season off the rails early on. Matt Ryan was still effective, but hadn’t led consistent, winning football in several years. The team sent longtime star WR Julio Jones to Tennessee by trade. GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Campbell were sent packing, replaced by former Saints executive Terry Fontenot, who brought in a new head coach in Arthur Smith. The defense allowed 32 and 48 points in an 0-2 start.
Atlanta has still struggled to find consistency despite landing just a game under .500 heading into Week 15, and it's not difficult to see. Of the teams sitting closest to the final wild card spot, the Falcons have by far the worst point differential (-108). Washington is closest at -58. The others, including the Saints (+19) are all on the positive side.
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The Saints have won the NFC South title the past four years, and appeared at least in line to contend for a fifth. The biggest question was whether they could replace Drew Brees at quarterback. Early on, it appeared they’d done that. The Saints started 5-2 with Jameis Winston at the helm, logging impressive wins over the Packers, Patriots and Bucs, team with that now hold a combined record of 29-10.
But disaster struck early in that win over Tampa and Winston was lost for the season. Trevor Siemian took the reins for four games, ultimately failing to land a win amid the cavalcade of injuries and issues that have plagued the Saints, realistically, since well before the season began. Taysom Hill fittingly has battled through his own difficult injuries in his two games as the starter. He threw four interceptions in a loss to the Cowboys, but came back with a "mallet finger" injury to lead a confidence-building win over the Jets on Sunday.
It was a win that, if nothing else, gives the Saints a realistic chance to control their own destiny. Almost. It’s actually New Orleans’ biggest rival that holds the strongest control of the Saints’ destiny.
But despite all that the Saints and Falcons still find themselves in the same place after 14 weeks. The Falcons got there in more impressive fashion than the Saints, beating the Carolina Panthers in Week 13 to knock them back a game behind the others. The Saints bucked their five-game skid with a victory over the hapless Jets.
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The Panthers (5-8) aren't out of the race yet, and there will be other tiebreaker scenarios to consider across the larger NFC, but for now let’s consider how we could potentially get to the final game of the regular season for what essentially becomes a playoff game to get into the playoffs.
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THE STANDINGS
First things first: The Saints and Falcons are still very much in the playoff race. Anyone who says otherwise is … well, they’re wrong. Neither of these teams will yet be considering their draft position or learning reps for young players.
Could that still happen? Certainly. But this is a post about the exciting scenarios. We’ll have plenty of time to talk about the others if and when they arrive.
The Saints and Falcons are both in a five-way tie of teams at 6-7, a record that’s currently good enough to put one team into the playoff field. There are other scenarios that could play out to bring one or more of those spots back to the pack. But in the interest of identifying how each team controls its destiny, we’ll focus on the one spot we know will be up for grabs.
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Purely by record Carolina isn’t out of it, but it’s a longshot that they’d able to win one more game than all five of the Saints, Vikings, Falcons, Eagles and Washington to get back into the fray.
The Saints and Falcons also likely need some help, but they’ll have opportunities. At the present time it’s Washington taking the final spot, which might confuse some fans. New Orleans did defeat the Football Team, after all. But that head-to-head result isn't a factor in a multi-team tiebreak unless all teams involved have played each other, and one logged a sweep of the others. That’s obviously not going to be the case in the current situation. If somehow the Saints and Washington end up tied in the end with others dropping out, that Week 5 result could still come into play.
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TIEBREAKERS TO KNOW
The Saints are no strangers to multi-team tiebreaks. Should that scenario enter the equation, the important thing to consider is: If there are multiple teams from the same division, the lower-ranked team is immediately eliminated in that tiebreaker calculation.
That’s just how the tiebreaker works. How the Saints stack up in head-to-head matchups vs the others, and even conference record would cease to apply if there was already a clear winner on the division end.
The tiebreaker priority for divisions goes as such: 1. Head-to-head record; 2. Division record; 3. Common games record; 4. NFC record
Here’s how things stack up record-wise through 14 weeks:
FALCONS
- Overall: 6-7
- Head-to-head: 1-0
- NFC South: 2-3
- NFC: 3-6
- Next three opponents: at 49ers; vs Lions, at Bills*
SAINTS
- Overall: 6-7
- Head-to-head: 0-1
- NFC South: 1-2
- NFC: 4-5
- Next three opponents: at Bucs*, vs Dolphins*, vs Panthers*
* = common games
The Falcons already hold the clear edge with a head-to-head win at the Caesars Superdome in Week 9. That means that a Falcons win in Week 18 would give them a victory over the Saints in any tiebreaker scenario by virtue of a head-to-head sweep. Furthermore, if the Falcons win their next three games, (at 49ers, vs Lions, at Bills) the Saints couldn't overtake them before Week 18. An Atlanta victory over the 49ers would bring San Francisco back to the pack and potentially open up another playoff slot for an NFC South team to pick up, but either way the Saints-Falcons finale would be pivotal.
This is complex enough without bringing in the other three teams sitting at 6-7, so I won't. But now that we’ve defined the pecking order for the NFC South, let’s look at the potential scenarios that could play out over the final four weeks, culminating at Mercedes-Benz Stadium one way or another.
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HOW THE SAINTS/FALCONS CAN WIN THE NFC SOUTH
It’s simple for the Falcons: They can’t.
With an overtime victory over the Bills in Week 14, the Bucs rose to 10-3 … multiple games clear of both the Saints and Falcons. The only way for either team to catch them would be an 0-4 finish for the Bucs, coupled with a 4-0 finish by either of the Saints and Falcons (only one can go 4-0). It’s unlikely the Bucs lose out, regardless. Even if they did and finished in a tie with Atlanta at 10-7, the tiebreaker goes to the Bucs by virtue of a head-to-head sweep.
Oddly enough, despite currently sitting behind Atlanta in the division, it's the Saints that represent the obstacle remaining between Tampa and its first NFC South title since 2007. It is, of course, a massive longshot. The Saints would first need to defeat the Bucs on the road in Week 15, then win their final three games. They'd also need Tampa to lose its final three matchups (at Panthers, at Jets, vs Panthers). Not exactly a murderer’s row of teams.
But no division winner can be crowned until the Saints lose at least one more game or the Bucs win one more. If both the Saints and Bucs finish at 10-7, the Saints would win the tiebreaker with a head-to-head sweep. As they say, it ain’t over til it’s over.
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A 10-7 WILD CARD
Should both the Saints and Falcons win their next three games, it doesn't guarantee that one (or both) will clinch a playoff spot — but it’s close.
Both teams would enter the final regular season game at 9-7, and there’d be no convoluted tiebreakers to worry about. One team wins and finishes 10-7, the other loses and finishes 9-8. Considering a sub-.500 record is currently the baseline for the 7th and final playoff spot, it stands to reason that 10-7 would be plenty good enough to qualify for extra games. Honestly, in this scenario it’s quite possible both teams get in regardless, and it’s simply a matter of determining the seeding. That’d take some of the urgency out of the matchup, but not by much. This is a rivalry, after all.
As detailed above, if both teams come out of the next three games with the same record, a tie is impossible. One team has to win, the other has to lose in Week 18.
But should either team lose one more game than the other, the tiebreakers land back on the table.
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MORE SCENARIOS
There are a handful of potential outcomes that would remove any tiebreaker question, so those won’t be laid out here. If it’s as simple as “the winning team finishes with a better record,” that’s already clear enough. For instance: Saints go 3-0, Falcons go 0-3 (or vice versa). That'd mean the result of Week 18 wouldn’t change anything in the NFC South, and won’t be laid out below. It could still obviously factor into a larger wild card race, but that's something to consider a few weeks down the road when the picture is clearer.
Saints go 2-1; Falcons go 3-0
In this scenario, the Saints go into Week 17 at 8-8, while the Falcons enter at 9-7. If the Falcons were to win in this scenario, they’d finish with a better record and sit ahead of the Saints in the division. Should the Saints win in that scenario it'd mark a head-to-head split, and the tiebreaker would move to divisional record. The scenario laid out above would put the Falcons with a final divisional record of 2-4, and the Saints at either 3-3 or 4-2. A Saints win would mean they win the division record tiebreaker and move ahead of Atlanta.
Saints go 3-0, Falcons go 2-1
This would result in a similar scenario as above. New Orleans would enter at 9-8, Falcons enter at 8-9. The team that won in Week 18 would come out ahead.
Saints go 2-1, Falcons go 1-2
Again, this would be a scenario where the winner moves ahead. New Orleans would enter Week 18 at 8-8, Falcons at 7-9. A Saints win would make them 9-8 and ahead of Atlanta. A Falcons win would put both teams at 8-9, and the Falcons take the tiebreaker by virtue of a head-to-head sweep.
Saints go 1-2, Falcons go 2-1
This is the more confusing scenario, but still retains the must-win elements. It'd send the Saints into Week 18 with a record of 7-9. This rabbit hole probably isn’t worth going down too deeply. The Saints would retain a shot at the playoffs with an 8-9 finish, but a slim one. A 7-10 finish would likely mean this game's only impact is where New Orleans picks in the draft.
It’d depend on how the results were split between the Saints' remaining NFC games and the lone AFC opponent, but whatever tiebreaker it got to, New Orleans would eventually come out ahead.
Don't believe me? That scenario would send would send New Orleans into Week 18 with a division record of 1-4 or 2-3. One way or another, they’d need a win to move past Atlanta. If New Orleans finishes 3-3 in the NFC South, tiebreaker won. If New Orleans finishes 2-4 and even with the Falcons, the next tiebreaker would be common games.
Here are the common opponents between the teams this season (head-to-head matchups excluded): Panthers (2), Bucs (2), Bills, Eagles, Giants, Washington, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets
As of Week 14, here’s how the teams stack up in those games:
- Falcons: 4-7
- Saints: 4-4
The only scenario where the Falcons could match the Saints in common games would be New Orleans going 0-3 in Weeks 15-17, a scenario that we’ve already established isn’t worth diving into as far as tiebreakers are concerned.
If the Saints go 1-2, that’d mean at least one of those wins improved their common games win total to 5. The Falcons could theoretically match that with a victory over the Bills in Week 17.
If both teams finish at 5-7 in common games, the tiebreaker would become conference record. The Saints currently hold a 4-5 record in those games. The Falcons are 3-6. As stated, the Falcons would need to beat the Bills to get to this stage so their one loss would have come against an NFC opponent (Lions or 49ers). Again, the only way for the Falcons to win this tiebreaker would be to win in Week 18 ... a result that would make the tiebreaker moot.
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SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?
Well, as stated above: It means that anyone telling you the Saints and/or Falcons don’t have a chance is mistaken.
The simplest way for both teams to make the playoffs would be to win out, but even with a loss both will retain a chance.
And consider, if it took this much information to suss out the scenarios around just the NFC South teams involved … you’ll have to forgive me for not even trying to wrap my head around the scenarios involving the other teams currently sitting at 6-7.
That’s the type of rabbit hole ESPN’s Playoff Machine was invented for.
With a month remaining in the 2021 season, there’s a lot we don’t know. One thing we do: Saints-Falcons in Week 18 has a high probability of becoming must-see television.
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