Through a quarter of the 2020 NFL season, this much we know for sure: Washington Football’s offense is not good right now.
Cliches about ‘lies, damn lies and, statistics’ aside, the stats (both advanced and basic) and what you can see with your own eyes both tell you the same thing, odds are they all aren’t wrong.
The challenge facing head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner is figuring out how to solve the problems facing the numerous problems facing the Washington offense.
The person who will face the most scrutiny is quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Of course, looking at the stats will only tell us part of the story about Haskins in his second NFL season. And while this is an incomplete picture, the numbers are not encouraging.
Related
The raw stats for his Week 4 performance are good: 314 passing yards on 45 attempts (a 71.1 completion percentage) and a 90.4 passer rating. It should be said: Haskins played decently. He did not turn the ball over and executed some short passes that led to big gains. (Example: The Ravens struggle defending screens and Haskins was able to execute those throws to Antonio Gibson.)
But the advanced stats aren’t there: Most of those yards came after the catch. Per NFL NextGen Stats, Haskins had the lowest Average Intended Air Yards (which measures downfield throwing) of the week at 4.7. His average Completed Air Yards was a paltry 3.2 yards (fourth-lowest).
On Air Yards to the Sticks, which measures if a quarterback is attempting passes beyond the 1st down marker, Haskins had -4.6, the lowest number in Week 4. (Compare that to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who led the league in Week 4, with a 4.9.)
The completion chart from the game against Baltimore tells the full story:
Through 4 games, Haskins' Air Yards to the Sticks (-2) is seventh-lowest in the league, his Average Intended Air Yards (7) is 10th lowest in the league, and his Completed Air Yards (3.8) is lowest in the NFL.
Is all of this Haskins’ fault or cause for concern? No, some passers are very successful at throwing short and relying on yards after the catch. But in order to be successful at that, you may have to be a historically great quarterback like Drew Brees and Tom Brady.
Related
Haskins’ issue, as evident in the differential between completed and intended air yards, is he isn’t completing enough deep passes when he does throw deep. On passes deeper than 10 yards, Haskins went 3/9 against Baltimore, 4/14 with 2 TDs and 2 INTs vs. Cleveland, 2/12 against Arizona, and 4/12 with one TD in Week 1 vs. Philadelphia.
All in all: That’s 13/47 (27.7 percent) with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions for Haskins on attempts that travel 10+ yards in the air.
And the raw stats aren’t too kind for the entire offense, either:
Washington is averaging just 19.8 points per game (which is up from 16.6 last season) but only better than the horrific New York combo of the Jets and Giants. Haskins’ offense is averaging just 20 first downs a game (again, up from 15.5 last season), but that’s fifth-worst in the NFL.
But most crucially, Washington is converting just 33.3 percent of third downs, dead last in the NFL, a category they were dead last in last season. If you can't convert, you can't stay on the field and you can't score points. And the onus is on Haskins to get better on 3rd down.
Of course, Rivera said he is seeing growth from Haskins as a passer. And that may be enough to keep the young quarterback in the starting lineup for this season. But growth alone might not be enough to settle the debate about Haskins’ future in Washington.