Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - The timing will be everything when it comes to an anticipated lake effect snow system that develops initially across the metro Buffalo area late Wednesday, then moves southward and settles into the southern tier for Thanksgiving Day.
The key questions to be answered, National Weather Service forecasters say, are where the initial snow band sets up and how long it remains before settling southward.
What is known, is a powerful cold front will enter the region Wednesday, ushering in gusty winds and localized heavy lake effect snow east of the lakes Wednesday night through the end of the week.
A Winter Storm Watch is now posted from 7 p.m. Wednesday until 4 p.m. Thanksgiving Day for the Buffalo metro, northern Erie and Genesee counties, and for southern Erie, Wyoming, Cattaraugus and Chautauqua counties from 7 p.m. Wednesday through 7 p.m. Thanksgiving Day.
Mild conditions will prevail through much of Wednesday, before a cold front rushes through and ushers in big changes.
"The band is going to move pretty quickly south," NWS meteorologist Aaron Reynolds tells WBEN. "Before that occurs, we will see a couple of inches, it looks like right now, it just depends on how long it stays up across the Buffalo metro area."
Clearly, the greatest area of impact will be across the southern tier and even south of the southtowns, Reynolds says. "Up to 7 inches or more will be possible."
Is metro Buffalo off the hook with this one?
"It's not quite off the hook...we've got to take a good look at that and keep an eye one it," Reynolds cautions. "It will depend on how fast that band moves through the Buffalo metro area. If it slows down, there could be more. If it speeds up, there could be considerably less."
Before the lake effect arrives, Western New York will contend with some milder temperatures Tuesday and some light rain across the region.
Everything changes when the cold front roars in with gusty winds later in the day Wednesday and the lake effect machine sets up.
More to come!
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations 7 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph, producing considerable blowing and drifting snow and near whiteout conditions.
* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee Counties. Greatest snow accumulations will likely be south and east of the City of Buffalo and in southwest Genesee County.
* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with slushy, snow covered roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the busy Thanksgiving holiday travel period. Gusty winds could down tree branches and cause isolated power outages.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There remains considerable uncertainty during the early portion of this lake effect snow event. There remains some uncertainty with band placement, and considerable uncertainty with how fast lake effect rain will change to snow. Both of these factors will determine how much snow ends up accumulating.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow with greatly reduced visibilities to dry conditions just a few miles away. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions.
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 7 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, producing considerable blowing and drifting snow and near whiteout conditions.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties.
* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday evening.
* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel treacherous with very poor visibility. Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the busy Thanksgiving holiday travel period. Gusty winds could down tree branches and cause isolated power outages.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be possible.