Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - I admit it. I was a little off in my preseason prediction of the Buffalo Bills' record.
I said the Bills would make the playoffs. I said they would win the AFC East for a fifth-straight season. But when it came to the record I had them going, it was 10-7.
I added that I went into the season not feeling like the Bills were a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
There were just too many key player departures on defense in the offseason, and the overhaul of the wide receiver group had me concerned. I guess I shouldn't have been worried.
As you know, the Bills rolled to another division title, a third-straight season as the 2-seed for the AFC Playoffs. The defense succeeded with a "bend, but don't break" philosophy, and the leader of the offense, Josh Allen, is favored by many to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award.
Let me start with the Bills defense.
The offseason saw them lose their leader in sacks last season (Leonard Floyd), as well as three starters in the secondary (Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde). Then, every down linebacker Matt Milano was lost to an injury in the preseason.
I expected the defense would go through a rough stretch for the first month or two, but as is usually the case with Sean McDermott teams, they would be playing their best ball in the latter portion of the regular season schedule.
Even with all of their personnel losses and other key injuries, the defense has found a way to make enough plays to complement one of the league's best offenses.
Takeaways have been a big help for the Bills. Buffalo is tied for first in the NFL with 31 takeaways. Teams have been able to move the ball on the Bills, but at some point, they've taken the ball away or stiffened to hold the opponent to a field goal.
But the defense is not playing its best, as we await the start of the playoffs.
The pass rush is not great. The run defense has been shaky, at times, and the Bills are really bad on third down. (I know what you're thinking... other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?)
Here is the key: If the offense can do in the postseason what it has done in the regular season, the Bills don't need their defense to be dominant. They just need that group to make a handful of stops to prevent the game from turning into a shootout like contests against the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions.
The offense, for the most part, looked like it didn't miss a beat, and that was not something I expected to see. I thought, for sure, there would be some growing pains for a unit that had a new starter at center, a new starter at left guard and only one returning wide receiver who had caught a regular season pass from Allen.
But offensive coordinator Joe Brady and Allen, as well as his teammates have been terrific.
The Bills set a new franchise record for touchdowns (60 by the offense) and points (509 as a team) in a single season. They are averaging 31 points a game, which is second only to Detroit.
Allen's stats have been better in other seasons, but he has, arguably, had his best season for a number of reasons. He has been in complete command and control of Brady's offense, and looks more comfortable than ever. Allen continually frustrated opposing defenses, and beat whatever they threw at him.
His decision-making and ball security is much improved. Allen has a career-low six interceptions, where his previous low was nine in 2019.
Tip of the cap to all of the men blocking for Allen when he is back to pass, because his 14 sacks are also a career-low. An impressive 10 fewer sacks than what was his career low of 24 last season.
I was very skeptical of the "everybody eats" philosophy the Bills were preaching, but they made it work.
Khalil Shakir leads the team in catches with 72, which is the lowest total for a team leader since 2019. He is the only Bills player with more than 50 catches this season. Shakir's 821 receiving yards is tops too, and the lowest total for the Bills since 2018.
As for the "everybody eats" idea, 13 different Bills have a receiving touchdown this season, which ties an NFL single-season record.
I went into the season feeling the Bills were not a legitimate Super Bowl contender for the first time in four years, but they have proven me wrong (thank you).
The bar is right back where it has been, and this Bills team has as good of a shot as the previous ones in the Allen era to take home the franchise's first Lombardi trophy.