Related
Our long, national nightmare is over: Stanley Cup games are finally here. And with that, our WEEI hockey "experts" decided to make their predictions on the most pressing storylines of the series between the Bruins and the Blues.
The participants are as follows: Matt Kalman, Dale Arnold, Pete Blackburn, Jermaine Wiggins, Scott McLaughlin, and Evan Marinofsky.
Here they are. Feel free to disagree.
HOW WILL THE LAYOFF AFFECT TUUKKA RASK?
DALE: The layoff for Tuukka is my greatest, if not only, concern going into the Final. But I’m going to go on the assumption that the roll he is on will continue. He has usually responded well to rest, and I think he will feel as rested and ready to go as he has all season.
WIGGY: He’ll be fine cause he’s in a zone, there’s no getting in his kitchen.
KALMAN: It won’t take long for Tuukka Rask to shake off the rust. Luckily the Blues will be coming off their own extra-long break and everyone is going to have a feeling-out period to start the series. But in addition to his innate talent as a great goaltender, Tuukka has always succeeded by not letting things like outside distractions or long layoffs bother him.
MARINOFSKY: I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blues score first in Game 1. In the first, the rebound control will be shaky and it’ll take Rask a period to shake the rust. Once that happens, Rask will be back and locked in.
BLACKBURN: You certainly don’t want a hot goalie to have to sit for 11 days and I think there’s a chance it could affect him in the first couple periods of Game 1 but overall I don’t think it should be a prolonged issue. I expect Rask to be the better goalie in this series.
MCLAUGHLIN: If anything, I think it helps. We’ve been hearing throughout the playoffs that Rask getting more rest during the regular season and being fresh for the playoffs has been key. Well, he played 17 games in 36 days through the first three rounds, which is a fairly heavy workload. Getting to be fresh again for the Cup Final should outweigh any potential rust.
WILL THE BRUINS COME OUT SLOW IN GAME 1?
DALE: The Bruins may come out slow in Game 1 because of their 10-day layoff. But the Blues will also be coming off a longer than normal layoff. I also think the energy and emotion of the TD Garden crowd, for Game 1, will help offset that.
WIGGY: They’ll be a little rusty the first 5 minutes & then hit’em with the Thanos snap.
KALMAN: Both teams will come out slow, but home-ice advantage will help the Bruins get their blood flowing quicker than the Blues. Look for David Backes to throw a big hit early to set the tone and send two messages: one to the Bruins to get going, one to the Blues that there are definitely not friends between the whistles.
MARINOFSKY: Yes, but just in the first period. Teams don’t typically come out roaring after a 10-day layoff so it’s safe to assume the same would happen with the Bruins. After the B’s had their bye week during the season, the first two games after were OT losses and weren't particularly strong. I have them losing Game 1. Sorry, guys.
BLACKBURN: I think both teams come out a little rough around the edges and use the first 20 minutes or so to re-adjust and get their bearings. I also think there’s going to be a feeling out period between these two teams and it’ll likely be a grind in the first period.
DALE: Probably my biggest concern is more emotional than physical. I don’t think the Blues are as quick as the Maple Leafs were, nor do I think they’re as physical as the Blue Jackets were, so I think the Bruins can match up well in the series. If you believe in a team of fate, then the second half and playoff roll the Blues have been on could concern you.
WIGGY: Nothing they’re dust.
KALMAN: Two things: (a) The size of the Blues’ defenseman will make it difficult for the Bruins to get anything going off the rush and make it difficult for them to get to the slot. The Bruins are going to have to play more dump-and-chase and establish a center-net drive often from the start of the series. Those Blues defensemen are big, but they’re mostly mobile and fancy plays at the St. Louis blue line will be begging for disaster. (b) The Blues’ bulk up front could give the Bruins a hard time, especially if Zdeno Chara is not 100 percent. But also the two smaller left-shot defensemen, Torey Krug and Matt Grzelcyk, have passed every test this postseason in terms of defending and handling heavy opponents. This will be the ultimate test of their ability to get the puck out of the Boston end quick while taking punishment. The Blues are the heaviest team Boston has faced in these playoffs.
MARINOFSKY: They’re the Blue Jackets but better and deeper. Like the Bruins, all four forward lines are legit so it doesn't look as though there are any weak spots to expose. It’ll all come down to how Cassidy matches up the lines. Something to watch: Patrice Bergeron vs. Ryan O'Reilly. Their styles are incredibly similar and so are their jobs.
BLACKBURN: Their depth. The third and fourth lines have been really, really solid for St. Louis (the fourth was probably their best in the WCF) and they do a good job at spreading the wealth. You can say the same about the Bruins but the loss of Chris Wagner hurts and I think there’s a chance they get outmatched on the bottom half of the roster.
MCLAUGHLIN: Would it be arrogant to say nothing? Sure, Vladimir Tarasenko could take over a game offensively. Jordan Binnington could get hot in net and steal a game. But the reality is that the Bruins are better in every facet -- offense, defense, goaltending and special teams.
WHAT ABOUT THE BRUINS SHOULD WORRY THE BLUES?
DALE: If I were Craig Berube, I would be scared to death of the special teams match up, and particularly the Bruins top-rated playoff power play against the 11th-ranked St. Louis penalty kill. The Bruins dominate the special team matchup.
WIGGY: Tuuks
KALMAN: Have you seen the Bruins' power play? Seriously, it's cliche to say a team has to stay out of the box, but the Bruins have gotten around 30 percent of their offense on the power play and they have two units that can punish the Blues if they're not disciplined. Also the Bruins have an obvious advantage on all four lines, and if the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line keeps things simple from the outset, they could have a series for the ages.
MARINOFSKY: Just how well they’ve been playing. The Bruins have been steam-rolling teams. Since 1987, the Bruins’ plus-24 goal differential ranks seventh out of 64 teams. Whether it be special teams, 5-on-5 production from the bottom two lines, shutdown defending, or goaltending, they are absolutely dominating. On top of that, they’re incredibly resilient. Even when they seem down and out, they're not.
BLACKBURN: Pretty much everything. The Bruins are a complete team and I’d say they hold an advantage across the board except maybe bottom-six forwards. The Bergeron line has done a great job shutting down top opponents, the defense has been solid, special teams has been great and Tuukka is on fire. There’s a lot to worry about there.
MCLAUGHLIN: Would it be arrogant to say everything? See above. But if I had to pick one area where the Bruins have the biggest advantage, it would be special teams. These teams have both been disciplined in the postseason, so you’re probably looking at 2-3 power plays apiece each game, and the Bruins’ power play (34% in the playoffs) is much more likely to swing a game with those opportunities than the Blues’ (19.4 percent).
WHO IS THE BEST PLAYER IN THE SERIES?
DALE: It’s a cliche, but Tuukka Rask has been the best player in the NHL over the course of these playoffs, and it’s the reason he is the odds on favorite to win the Conn Smythe Award if the Bruins complete the job. But the most complete player in this matchup is, as always, Patrice Bergeron.
WIGGY: Tuuks, cause he’s lights out & standing on his head.
KALMAN: Bergeron is the best player in this series because he can impact the game in so many different ways. He and Marchand can be a threat shorthanded, Bergeron is one of the Bruins’ most dangerous options on the power play and his positioning without the puck will make it difficult for the Blues to advance the puck out of their own end and through the neutral zone.
MARINOFSKY: It’s a duh statement, but it's going to be Tuukka Rask. These games are going to be low-scoring so it’ll come down to Rask and Jordan Binnington. It just feels like Rask’s year. I fully expect him to have a Tim Thomas in 2011-like performance. Obviously Bergeron's important, but Rask will be the best player in this series.
BLACKBURN: Bergeron. He’s getting it done in all three zones and he’s an impossible player to replace or match. Sorry, Ryan O’Reilly.
MCLAUGHLIN: At this moment? Tuukka Rask. In general? Brad Marchand.
HOW WILL DAVID BACKES PERFORM AGAINST HIS FORMER TEAM?
DALE: I think David Backes will continue to perform well in this series, as he has since being re-inserted into the Bruins playoff lineup. Bruce Cassidy has been judicious with Backes’ minutes, and will continue to be, the extra days off when the series switch cities figures to benefit Backes as well.
WIGGY: He’ll be flying around & ready to make an impact.
KALMAN: The same way David Backes has performed this whole postseason -- 10 minutes of hard-nose, straight-forward hockey that will make the Blues think twice before making a pass out of the defensive zone and discourage them from taking liberties with David Krejci or any of Boston’s skill players. We’ve seen close friends compete for the Cup before, so this won’t be anything different or anything that will affect Backes’ play.
MARINOFSKY: I think he plays well. He chose Boston because he felt it was his best shot at the Cup. If he wins, his decision will be proven right. If he loses, his decision to leave St. Louis will look terrible. In five games against the Blues, he has three goals. I totally expect him to light the lamp at least once in this series.
BLACKBURN: In a small sample, he’s got three goals in five games against his former team, so that suggests he gets up to play St. Louis. We’ll see if that continues in the SCF but he’s looked good through the postseason so far.
MCLAUGHLIN: Fine. He’ll get his 8-12 minutes of 5-on-5 time with David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk, throw some hits, fit in well enough to let them do their thing, and maybe chip in a couple points. He’s not being asked to do anything more than that, and that’s for the best.
WHO WILL BE AN X-FACTOR?
DALE: My x-factor is Jake DeBrusk. He has been okay, but not yet at the level I’ve expected of him, especially playing with playoff David Krejci. I think DeBrusk will have plenty of scoring opportunities, and I think he will begin to capitalize on them at a greater rate.
WIGGY: Pasta
KALMAN: This would seem like a great time for Jake DeBrusk to have a series for the ages. His speed should put those big Blues defensemen on their heels and give him room to roam.
MARINOFSKY: Charlie Coyle. He’s already been great in these playoffs but because of the Blues depth, the first two lines from each team will most likely cancel themselves out. It’s going to come down to how Coyle’s line does against whoever they face. I say the hometown kid will come up big in this series. That would tug at the heart strings now wouldn't it?
BLACKBURN: David Krejci and his line. He’s going to have a tough matchup if he’s going against O’Reilly but the Bruins will need secondary scoring to win the Cup, especially if Bergeron and the top line are focusing on shutting down the Blues’ top scorers. The production of the second line could be the difference in this series.
DALE: While I think Craig Berube has done a spectacular job since replacing the fired Mike Yeo, I also think the Bruins’ Bruce Cassidy wins this coaching matchup. Cassidy, and his staff, have had the Bruins special teams at a high level all season long, and I feel Cassidy won the previous playoff coaching matchups with Mike Babcock, John Tortorella and Rod Brind’Amour. He wins this one too.
WIGGY: Cassidy coaching & Berube in a fight.
KALMAN: This is a push because these are maybe the two most honest, most transparent coaches and they’re both players’ coaches that have shown they can maximize what they have and lead a team through adversity. Cassidy earned his chops when the Bruins were playing for weeks without Bergeron, Chara and a cast of injured defenseman early in the year. The Bruins season should’ve been over right there. Berube did a great job lifting the Blues out of last place in January to within a couple points of winning the Central Division by the end of the regular season. But where he really proved his worth was after the Blues lost Game 3 of the Western Conference final to San Jose on the hand-pass goal. By the time the dressing room opened, Blues players were already talking about turning the page. Berube got his team to forget they’d been screwed and focus on the future. That’s the sign of a great coach, especially considering the stakes and the time of year.
MARINOFSKY: Bruce Cassidy. For this entire year, it feels as though Cassidy’s pushed all the right buttons. He has last change four times in this series and his ability to match lines up will be too much for the Blues to handle. On the other hand, the Blues were hot garbage even after Berube took over in November. Berube's proved he's an incredible coach, but Cassidy has the edge in this one.
BLACKBURN: Cassidy. The turnaround for the Blues has been incredible but this was always a talented Blues team and they magically found good goaltending in the second half. Berube has obviously done a solid job and I’ve been impressed with how resilient his team is, but there’s no extended body of work.
DALE: I think the Bruins get a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup on home ice, and win this series in five games
WIGGY: Bruins in 5
KALMAN: Bruins in 6
MARINOFSKY: Bruins in 7. This is going to be a back-and-forth, exciting series that has lots of momentum shifts. There will be lots of physicality, low-scoring games and overtime. But in the end, it’ll be the B’s lifting the Cup on home ice. It took three chances during this century for the Red Sox to win the World Series on home turf and they did it against….a St. Louis team. Here’s the Bruins’ chance.
BLACKBURN: Bruins in 6.
MCLAUGHLIN: I told Ken Laird on Friday that I was very high on the Bruins in this series and was waffling between picking them in five or picking a sweep. Then he went on Sunday Skate and told the whole world I was picking a sweep. So I guess I’m picking a sweep. Bruins in four. (P.S. Where are Laird’s picks? How’d he weasel his way out of this?)
WHO WINS THE CONN SMYTHE?
DALE: Tuukka completes his ascension to “Tim Thomas” level in Boston, and adds the Conn Smythe Trophy to his resume.
WIGGY: Tuuks
KALMAN: It’s Rask’s award to lose and there’s no reason to believe he’s not going to come up big against the Blues the way he did in the first three rounds.
MARINOFSKY: Rask. The Tuukka-deniers will climb back into their caves and turn their focus to proving the Earth is flat. Have you ever seen the curvature of the Earth?
BLACKBURN: Tuukka, and everyone can finally shut up for good.
