The Boston Bruins will open the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs Saturday at 8 p.m., when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 1 of their best-of-seven first-round series at TD Garden.
Previewing Bruins-Maple Leafs first-round series
The Bruins do not enter the playoffs as one of the top favorites to win the Cup. Most sportsbooks have them with the seventh- or eighth-best odds. MoneyPuck’s prediction model is even lower on Boston, giving them just a 3.6% chance to win it all, which ranks 11th among the field of 16. That model, which is analytics-based, actually has the Bruins as first-round underdogs against the Leafs, giving Toronto a 56.3% chance to win the series.
As the Bruins painfully learned last year, though, odds and predictions and analytics don’t always mean a whole lot this time of year. Getting hot and consistently playing the right way does.
With that in mind, here are five keys for the Bruins to do that and make a deeper run than many expect:
1. Get the goalie situation right
What does “getting it right” mean when it comes to the Bruins’ goaltending situation? Well, we don’t know. And that’s why it’s the most discussed and debated topic among fans and media alike heading into the playoffs.
Last year, the Bruins’ coaching staff thought that riding Linus Ullmark was going to be the right call. It turned out not to be. Ullmark struggled as Boston’s first-round series against Florida went on, and they didn’t turn to Jeremy Swayman until Game 7.
So, what do they do this year? Jim Montgomery still hasn’t publicly announced his plan, but he has said repeatedly all year long that he is more open to rotating goalies in the playoffs this year than he was last year. Whether he actually does remains to be seen.
And if he does, how long it lasts will be fascinating to watch. If Ullmark and Swayman are both playing well, then the Bruins could keep rotating until or unless that’s no longer the case. But if one of them has an off night, is that one game all it would take to ditch the rotation and ride the other guy? Would it take two such games? What happens if both goalies have an off night?
The questions go the other way, too. If Montgomery decides to ride one guy at some point, will he have a quicker trigger to make a change than he did with Ullmark last year?
The Bruins’ goalie situation can be both a blessing and a curse. A lot of teams – like their first-round opponent, Toronto – would kill to have one goalie of Ullmark and Swayman’s caliber, never mind two. But having two of them also makes second-guessing very easy if whatever Montgomery and goalie coach Bob Essensa decide to do doesn’t work out.
2. Get consistent secondary scoring
It just about goes without saying that the Bruins are going to need David Pastrnak to score. And, despite certain narratives, he has generally done that in the playoffs. Pastrnak has 79 points in 77 career playoff games, making him one of just 10 active players who have played at least 30 postseason games and are averaging over a point per game.
Even last year, in a series in which he came under fire, Pastrnak scored five goals against the Panthers, including go-ahead goals in the third periods of both Game 6 and Game 7. The blame for the Bruins subsequently blowing those leads lies elsewhere.
The bigger question for the Bruins’ offense is who else is going to score. Brad Marchand usually steps up this time of year, as he has 85 points in his last 74 playoff games going back to 2018.
After that, the Bruins have a lot of forwards who have stepped up into bigger roles this regular season, but will now need to do so in the playoffs. Charlie Coyle, for instance, played pretty well overall against Florida last year, but did have just two points in seven games. He will be counted on for more offense this spring, in addition to potentially playing a shutdown, matchup role.
Pavel Zacha has zero goals in 12 career playoff games. Trent Frederic has zero points in nine. Morgan Geekie has two goals in 24 postseason games. All three will be relied upon more than they’ve ever been before.
Jake DeBrusk, as we all know, runs hot and cold, including in past postseasons. He has five separate goalless droughts of seven games or more this season. The Bruins can’t afford for him to have another in the first round, or any other round.
3. Get the power play going
Another place where the Bruins need to find some offense is on the power play. They enter the playoffs just 3-for-32 (9.4%) on the man advantage over their last 12 games.
Last year, the Bruins’ power play also had some issues late in the regular season (although not nearly to the same extent as this year), but then turned it on in the playoffs, going 11-for-27 (40.7%) against the Panthers.
Can they do the same this year? There were at least some positive signs Tuesday night, as their new-look top unit – which had Kevin Shattenkirk in place of Charlie McAvoy and Danton Heinen in place of Brad Marchand – moved the puck well, generated some good chances, and ultimately went 1-for-2 on the night.
Will Montgomery actually stick with that unit to start the playoffs? It would take some guts to keep McAvoy and Marchand demoted to second-unit duties come Game 1, but there’s no doubt that the top unit looked better with Shattenkirk quarterbacking than it had in weeks.
It’s true that the Bruins won the Cup in 2011 without a good power play, but that was a long time ago, and that’s a formula you’d prefer to not have to try again.
4. Win at both net-fronts
This is where so many playoff games are won or lost, as the Bruins know all too well. In more than one end-of-season postmortem in recent years, Don Sweeney and Cam Neely have lamented not getting to “inside ice” more and scoring more playoff-type goals.
While the Bruins’ offense overall has not been as explosive as last season, they have actually been better at scoring greasier goals. In fact, they’ve been one of the best in the NHL. According to tracking data from All Three Zones, the Bruins rank sixth in offense generated from rebounds and deflections. The previous two seasons, they were outside the top 20.
Montgomery made that a point of emphasis from Day 1 of training camp, mandating that two forwards be at or moving towards the front of the net at all times in the offensive zone. Now it’s time to see if it pays off in the playoffs.
At the other end of the ice, the Bruins will need to be better at defending their own net-front than they’ve been much of this season. Last year, the Bruins did a great job limiting high-danger chances all season… right up until the playoffs, when it suddenly turned into a major problem against the Panthers.
Unfortunately, those struggles carried over to this season. The Bruins ranked 24th in high-danger chances allowed this season, the worst mark among the 16 playoff teams. According to All Three Zones, they’re 19th in rebound and deflection defense.
Ullmark and/or Swayman are capable of bailing the defense out to an extent, but if the Bruins can’t clean up the front of their net, it could very well be their downfall.
5. Simplify the breakout
This was another area that cost the Bruins last postseason. They like to exit their zone with possession rather than just flipping pucks out, as do most teams. But against good forechecking teams in the playoffs, that can lead to too many turnovers if your usual breakout plays aren’t there to be made.
Against the Panthers last spring, the Bruins were too stubborn, continuing to try to make passes under pressure that led to trouble. At some point, they should have changed the gameplan and been more willing to simply flip pucks out and live to fight another day.
Down the stretch this season, the Bruins have shown more willingness to do that. They still want to make plays if they’re there – as they should – but they haven’t been forcing as many. They have to carry that mindset into the playoffs.
Breaking out with possession is great and leads to much better transition offense – and that is a strength of the Bruins that they shouldn’t completely throw out the window. But, to use an analogy my Sunday Skate co-host Andrew Raycroft likes to use, they have to be smart about when to go for it and when to punt.