Everyone knows goaltending is going to be important in this series and every other series. If one team gets good goaltending and the other doesn’t, the team getting it is probably going to win.
So, we’re not including Boston’s and Carolina’s goalies as X-factors here. They’re just big factors, period. The Bruins need Linus Ullmark, their Game 1 starter, to play how he did down the stretch. If he doesn’t, they’ll need Jeremy Swayman to step up. The Hurricanes need at least one of Antti Raanta or Pyotr Kochetkov to get the job done until Frederik Andersen returns, which may or may not be during this series.
We’re not including any of the stars here either. Again, it’s obvious that the likes of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Sebastian Aho are important. We know they’re going to be key factors in how this series unfolds.
Who’s on that next level, though? Who has the potential to be a deciding factor if they step up? Here are five players we think could be X-factors:
Jake DeBrusk
In a rollercoaster year that saw DeBrusk get healthy scratched early on, then publicly request a trade, then sign an extension on trade deadline day, and ultimately not get traded, DeBrusk closed out the regular season on a high note.
The 25-year-old wing has been great since getting moved up to the top line on Feb. 24, recording 16 goals and nine assists over the final 32 games. Even when the puck hasn’t gone in for DeBrusk, he’s brought the effort and two-way play that’s required to play on a line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Last week, Bruce Cassidy said DeBrusk has “been just as good for that line as they’ve been for him.”
The Bruins will need that level of play to continue for DeBrusk. He’s no stranger to stepping up in the playoffs (five goals in seven games against Toronto in 2018; two goals in Game 4 against Carolina in 2020), but he’s also had his fair share of quiet series (seven of them in which he’s had one or zero goals). With his line likely to see tough matchups all series long, the Bruins will need DeBrusk to attack the net, make second-effort plays, and work hard all over the ice, even when things get frustrating.
Jordan Staal
The 33-year-old veteran and team captain centers the Hurricanes’ third line with Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast. It’s one of the best defensive lines in hockey, in large part because Staal remains one of the best defensive centers in hockey.
Staal and his linemates will be tasked with tough defensive assignments all series, whether it’s against the Bergeron line or the Bruins’ second line of Taylor Hall, Erik Haula and David Pastrnak. Whichever line they go up against, the Hurricanes need Staal’s line to slow it down. They can’t afford to have both of the Bruins’ top two lines produce at a high rate, and Staal’s line limiting one of them is their best chance to avoid that.
Staal is Carolina’s best faceoff man as well, so expect to see plenty of him vs. Bergeron at the dot on key draws. And on a team that isn’t overly physical, he’s one of the guys who will bring that as well. Staal led the Hurricanes with 212 hits this season.
In 2020, when these two teams met in the first round, it was actually a hit on Staal that was arguably the biggest turning point of the series. With the Bruins trailing 2-1 in the third period of Game 4, Charlie McAvoy stepped up on Staal with a huge, clean hit that knocked Staal out of the game. Momentum swung, the Bruins came back to win and take a 3-1 series lead, and then went on to close out Carolina in Game 5.
Charlie Coyle
Speaking of third-line centers, Coyle always seems to be an easy “X-factor” pick, and for good reason. Series often hinge on the performance of third lines, and the Bruins have seen that with Coyle.
When he’s on his game and producing -- like he was for much of the 2019 Cup Final run -- the Bruins win. When his line goes quiet -- like 2020 against the Lightning or last year against the Islanders -- they lose. The formula isn’t quite that simple, but none of that is a coincidence either.
We now know that Coyle was seriously limited by a knee injury last year. He bounced back with one of the best seasons of his career this year, posting 16 goals and 28 assists while being the only Bruin to play in all 82 regular-season games.
When he, Trent Frederic and Craig Smith have been at their best, they’ve given the Bruins their best third line since that 2019 run. They went a little too quiet down the stretch, though, with Coyle posting zero goals and three assists over the final 11 games, and the line as a whole scoring just three goals in that time.
The Bruins will need more offense from them in the playoffs, along with the energy and defense they bring. And the line goes as Coyle goes, so it starts with him.
Brandon Carlo
As with Coyle, we already have the evidence of what Carlo can mean to the Bruins’ chances of playoff success. In 2019, he was healthy and very good for the entire Cup Final run. In 2017 and 2018, his late-season injuries were devastating blows and a big factor in early exits.
Last year, he was off to a strong start through a round and a half. Then he got hurt in Game 3 against the Islanders, and it was arguably the biggest turning point in the series. The Bruins lost all three games he missed and were sent home packing.
Carlo was able to stay pretty healthy this season (he played 79 of 82 games), but his play was too inconsistent at times. The Bruins need the good Carlo, the one who’s been a difference-maker in the playoffs in the past.
In a series where goals will be at a premium and against a very opportunistic opponent, the Bruins cannot afford to have Carlo commit the kind of senseless turnovers that have plagued him during his rough stretches this season. They don’t need him to do anything flashy, but they do need him to be a stout and clean defender.
Tony DeAngelo
We could write pages on all of DeAngelo’s past nonsense that ultimately led to the Rangers kicking him to the curb, but for the purposes of this series, we’re more concerned with the here and now. By all accounts, DeAngelo has kept his head down in Carolina and has not been a distraction.
On the ice, DeAngelo has been a cheap and effective replacement for the offense from the blue line that the Hurricanes lost when they didn’t re-sign Dougie Hamilton. He had 10 goals and 41 assists in 64 games while also quarterbacking Carolina’s top power-play unit.
Defensively, though, DeAngelo can be exposed. He is easily the weakest defender on the Hurricanes’ back end, particularly when it comes to breakouts and preventing zone entries (see the @JFreshHockey player card below -- red is bad, blue is good). Considering DeAngelo plays on the same side of the ice as Marchand and Hall, the Bruins should have opportunities to take advantage of his defensive deficiencies.
They need to do so. The best way to prevent DeAngelo from being involved in the offensive zone is to force him to spend time in his own zone defending. He can make some game-breaking offensive plays, but the Bruins can also make some game-breaking plays against him.
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