"I was with him for 11 years, so there's not much that I haven't taken from him or learned from him. He's a phenomenal football coach, and his track record speaks for itself." - Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll on Bill Belichick in 2018
Having held various positions in two separate stints on Bill Belichick’s Patriots staff, it isn’t shocking to hear that Brian Daboll learned close to everything he knows from Belichick. He certainly didn’t learn much from Todd Haley or Eric Mangini, aside from maybe what not to do.
Of the many, many hallmarks of Belichick’s Patriots, one that separates Belichick and other smart coaches from some of the more Jurassic NFL minds is the ability to not learn the wrong lessons from winning.
A recent example from Belichick is Cam Newton. Newton performed well enough in the preseason and in training camp to warrant being named the Week 1 starter. In fact, almost every rebuttal to anyone who made the case for Mac Jones to win offensive rookie of the year, a drum which some of us started pounding with a Keith Moon-esque rhythm a week after the draft, was that Newton would start Week 1.
Well, Belichick was never going to start him just for the sake of starting him, especially after seeing how limited the offense was with Newton under center last season. Belichick did not learn the wrong lesson from Newton's preseason performance and went with Jones, a move unanimously regarded as correct with the benefit of hindsight.
There exists ample evidence for why Daboll will succeed as a head coach when he decides to move on from Buffalo. An anecdote of his leadership chops leaked out this offseason with his, “Remember where we came from” speech. But a move that paints him parallel to Belichick and in opposition to the Pete Carroll, Mike Zimmer, and Jason Garretts of the NFL occurred about a year after the quote from the top of this article.
In Week 7 of 2018, Daboll moved from the coaches’ box to the sideline to call plays. Derek Anderson was the quarterback so it didn’t matter and the Bills were blown out by the Colts. But a year later, the Bills were humming at 6-3, the Buffalo equivalent of a Super Bowl, but Daboll knew the offense could be better, so he moved back into the coaches’ box to call plays, and the results were staggering.
For the last decade, we have watched coaches like Bill O’Brien and Carroll come so close to blowing big leads in the second half because they go conservative, only for their elite quarterback to bail them out. They think because they won the game, it was the right philosophy. They learn the wrong lessons from winning.
Daboll, Sean McDermott and the Bills don’t learn the wrong lessons from, well, pretty much anything.
Because Daboll remembers where he came from.
Here are three more aspects of the Buffalo Bills to keep an eye on this week...
Great Dane Jackson
Not all injuries are created equal. While we’d rather live in a world where none of these athletes trying to achieve their dreams are ever tragically injured, the unfortunate truth is that it happens and there are injuries that disappoint more than others. Derrick Henry going out for the fan, too. Not as much as physical injury, but emotionally. Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White tearing his ACL this late in the season falls under this category.
White leaves the Bills defense as the second-best defense, behind only the Patriots, by weighted DVOA (which weighs recent performances more than those from earlier in the season), and PFF’s top-rated defense by coverage. Levi Wallace is a legit number two cornerback and Taron Johnson is an elite slot corner, but last year’s seventh-round pick Dane Jackson, described by The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia as “hit-or-miss”, could find himself in the crosshairs of opposing offenses as an inexperienced player thrust into the starting lineup.
You’re Hot and You’re Cold, You’re Yes and You’re No
If you don’t like analytics, then move on to the next point. But if you think there just might be something to a database of statistics that takes into account literally every play ever run in the entire history of the NFL and the various variables that go into each and every one, then stick around.
The 2021 Buffalo Bills are the most volatile team since Football Outsiders began tracking DVOA, meaning they have the best of the best wins and the worst of the worst losses this season. Their losses to the Steelers, Jaguars, and Colts are three of the most pitiful products put on a field by any NFL team this season. Their loss to the Titans was an example of how not to play defense.
Maybe we didn’t need 100+ years of relative data to tell us that, but thanks to Football Outsiders, we have it anyway. Clap now.
Run (feat. Matt Breida) (Feliciano’s Version) (From the Vault)
It’s fair to point out the glaring deficiency of the surging Patriots is the run defense. Dontrell Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman both broke 100 yards rushing in another wise blowout-ish win for the Patriots on Sunday. The Bills aren’t regarded as having a great running game, but they at least subscribe to the strategy of having multiple functional running backs. In the last month, Matt Breida has the fifth-highest yards per rushing attempt in the NFL. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss aren’t exactly nobodies either, especially behind an offensive line that has the third-best PFF run blocking grade, is tenth-best in DVOA, and is expected to get starting guard Jon Feliciano back this week.