Let’s make two things clear right off the bat:
1. Ja'Marr Chase should win offensive rookie of the year. He has had the best season of any skill position rookie in the NFL and 100% deserves to win the award.
2. My motivation in writing this has NOTHING to do with the money I have tied up in Mac Jones winning the award instead. This is not some “holier than thou” law of attraction voodoo magic I’m attempting to conjure up. Nope.
But as the sports media world awarded Chase the award this week following his 11-catch, 266-yard and three touchdown evisceration of the Chiefs defense on Sunday, it seems some people are not fully taking into account the way the voters have voted on the award in the past.
During my multiple rationalizations of Jones being the layup pick to win the award this season, I noted a few aspects of previous winners that have gone unchallenged in the modern NFL:
-- If a rookie quarterback’s team makes the playoffs, the quarterback wins offensive rookie of the year – unless of course there are multiple rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Dak Prescott fall under this category.
-- Tie goes to the quarterback when the debate is between a quarterback and a non-quarterback. Vince Young, Sam Bradford, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert fall under this category.
The bottom line is that voters perceive players on good teams more favorably than those on bad teams, and naturally lean towards the quarterback position.
What has myself and others who have money on Jones winning the award scared is just how good Chase has been this season. His numbers may just be way too high to ignore, combined with his massive game coming so late in the season and against a team with as high of a profile as the Chiefs – that stat line against the Jaguars doesn’t give Chase the theoretical OROTY crown the way it has in the game’s aftermath.
Likewise, there’s always the chance Jones has a big game as the Bengals rest Chase in Week 18.. However, the voters might not care if it turns out to be a meaningless game for the Patriots. But if it leads to the Patriots getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC? Then we can hand Jones the crown. Playoff success won’t matter since the award is voted on after the regular season.
The next layer here to go along with the aspects of the award that have gone unchallenged since 2004 are what competition all of those quarterbacks had from other skill position players in those seasons. Players Like Todd Gurley, Eddie Lacy, Odell Beckham, and Alvin Kamara won the award in seasons that either saw no rookie quarterbacks make the playoffs or none who make enough of an impact to register on voters’ radars. Introduce a playoff or even somewhat notable quarterback and the non-quarterbacks are forgotten.
Did any of those non-quarterbacks have seasons comparable to what Chase is doing? Or is a Chase win going to be unprecedented, even with 1429 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns on 79 catches?
Right off the bat, we can go to last season when Justin Herbert won the award over Justin Jefferson, despite Jefferson’s 1,400 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 88 catches – at least in the neighborhood of Chase's 2021 numbers. But as we know, tie goes to the quarterback. The Chargers and Vikings both missed the postseason, but Herbert’s 4,336 passing yards combined with 31 touchdown passes and only ten interceptions pop. Heading into the first ever Week 18, Jones sits at 3,540 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Certainly not Herbert numbers, and likely not enough for a “tie goes to the quarterback” situation.
Here are some of the top rushing and receiving rookies in years quarterbacks won the award:
2004:
Ben Roethlisberger wins OROTY as the Steelers go 15-1 and get the top seed in the AFC.
Kevin Jones: 1,133 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Lions missed playoffs.
Michael Clayton: 1,193 receiving yard and seven touchdowns. Buccaneers missed playoffs.
2006:
Vince Young wins OROTY as the Titans go 8-8 and miss the playoffs.
Joseph Addai: 1,081 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Colts go 12-4 and win Super Bowl.
2008:
Matt Ryan wins OROTY as the Falcons go 11-5 and make the playoffs as a wild card.
Steve Slaton: 1,282 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Texans missed playoffs.
Matt Forte: 1238 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Bears missed playoffs.
Chris Johnson: 1,228 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Titans go 13-3 and get the top seed in the AFC.
2010:
Sam Bradford wins OROTY as the Rams go 7-9 and miss the playoffs. No competition.
2011:
Cam Newton wins OROTY as the Panthers go 6-10 and miss the playoffs. No competition.
2012:
Robert Griffin III wins OROTY as Washington goes 10-6 and makes the playoffs.
Doug Martin: 1,454 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Buccaneers missed the playoffs.
2016:
Dak Prescott wins OROTY as the Cowboys go 13-3 and get the top seed in the NFC.
Ezekiel Elliott: Leads league with 1631 rushing yards, adds 15 rushing touchdowns.
Jordan Howard: 1,313 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Bears miss the playoffs.
Michael Thomas: 1,137 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Saints miss the playoffs.
2019:
Kyler Murray wins OROTY as the Cardinals miss the playoffs.
Josh Jacobs: 1,150 rushing yards and seven touchdowns Raiders miss the playoffs.
Aside from the Herbert-Jefferson comparison, there are a few more that show up when we go through the list.
Any of the 2008 examples are notable, especially since Matt Ryan’s box score stats that season were inferior to those of Jones this season and since Chris Johnson’s Titans were the best team in the NFL.
Doug Martin’s numbers in 2012, albeit on a non-playoff team, are very comparable to those of Chase this season – but keep in mind part of what propelled Griffin III was that Washington was 3-6 coming out of their bye week and rattled off seven wins in a row, including one of the most watched regular-season games in the history of the NFL on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys, a MNF win against the defending champion Giants, and another win against the Cowboys in Week 17 on SNF to win the division and make the playoffs.
And finally there’s the Prescott-Elliott case, which may be complicated since they were on the same team. Still, Elliott literally led the NFL in rushing, and the voters still went with the quarterback. Prescott’s rookie numbers, aside from his four interceptions and 13 wins, are also comparable to those of Jones’ this season.
Chase isn’t going to lead the league in receiving. 2008 was a long time ago, but Johnson’s Titans were the best team in the league and the voters went with the quarterback who didn’t even put up Jones numbers.
Like I said, Chase should win the award. Jefferson should have won the award. Johnson should have won the award. Elliott should have won the award. But they didn’t, because “should” isn’t how this works. It may work out that way for Chase, but history says it would be unprecedented.
I may have just talked myself into this thing.