If Bill Belichick was a stock he’d be Apple and if you invested in him prior to 2001, you would be Bobby Axelrod level rich. In terms of football wealth, Bill Belichick has helped make New England scenic ocean front property in the most exclusive of neighborhoods.
No doubt about any of that.
Belichick is the best coach that I have ever seen in any sport in my lifetime. Despite his frugal nature and his methodical and often maddening approach to value-seeking, he is one of the greatest team builders in football history as well. You cannot dispute his sustained success here in New England, as I chronicled here well over two years ago.
However, as Belichick approaches his 70th birthday this April, the question is, how long can his stock continue to pay dividends? The dividends we have enjoyed to date have given this football region the richest of returns. As we approach year 22 of the Bill Belichick era as New England’s football emperor, there are some concerning reasons to start considering an eventual sale of his stock. I hate to say it but the concerns are real.
My concerns are these:
· The succession plan.
· The well chronicled coaching brain drain.
· The eventual end to his network.
· His age and increasing workload.
· The open and available book of his football genius.
The succession plan:
Belichick has always been mindful of this regarding his team-building strategy; the drafting of Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014 to succeed Tom Brady at then the age of 37 being the most obvious example. Like that situation, however, it was Tom Brady that ended up replacing Tom Brady, and that not only prolonged his stay in New England and his own Hall of Fame career but extended the last legs of his and Belichick’s dynastic time together.
Translated; if Josh McDaniels was the likely successor to Belichick, then Belichick like Brady before him, replaced himself. Now the targeted successor to the throne is gone and as it stands today, Belichick is left with lesser options to pass his torch to. Does the idea of Matt Patricia, Joe Judge or his son Steven Belichick taking over the organization excite you? Frankly, it frightens me.
The guy I would love to take over the reins is available but his path to a return to New England is muddy and riddled with potholes at the moment; that would be Brian Flores. Maybe a return to New England could happen someday but Flores’ current journey (a noble one) like Garoppolo’s drafting or a succession to McDaniels, likely won’t time out well. That leads us back to the lack of coaching and organizational depth.
The Brain Drain:
Since the organization’s first departures during the early era of the Patriots dynasty under Belichick, the loss of institutional knowledge in Foxboro is both eye-popping and concerning. Personnel talents like Scott Pioli, Thomas Dimitroff, Nick Caserio, Ernie Adams, and most recently Dave Ziegler are the types of confidants that help sustain organizational philosophy and success. The number of coaches who have earned their stripes in New England but found their next opportunity and career ascension elsewhere is now well over 35 as seen in this piece I wrote over two years ago.
To quote Yoda in The Empire Strikes Back, “Now, matters are worse.”
The eventual end to his network:
Belichick has been coaching in the NFL since 1975. He’s been in a high-level coaching position (Defensive Coordinator or higher) for 37 years. He’s been a head coach for 26 years. Now on his staff are two of his sons (Steven and Brian). His new Director of Player Personnel is the son of his longtime coaching pier Al Groh (Matt Groh) and another son of a career-long friend Mike Lombardi (Mick) has since come and went. After nearly 50 years in the NFL my question is this, have we seen the best of Belichick’s networks? Without a coordinator on either side of the ball and with both a depleted coaching and personnel staff, the current state of things suggests we have.
How many more within Belichick’s trust tree are left to tap?
His age and increased workload:
I’m worried about this. If his personnel team were in place (Ziegler or any of the names above) and McDaniels or Flores were firmly ensconced as his coordinators I would have zero concerns. They are not however and as currently constituted, there isn’t enough NFL level experience seemingly anywhere on his staff. So where does the burden fall? On Belichick and as he comes up to the age of 70 that is exactly what I hope wouldn’t be the case.
Of course I want Belichick calling the shots and making the decisions but to do that and have more on his plate with less proven support around him isn’t a desirable recipe. It’s a recipe for disaster…
If the Patriots want to get the most out of Belichick they need to invest in more support as he approaches his golden years, not less.
And finally…
The open and available book on his genius:
One of the greatest traits that Belichick possesses is his ability to game-plan against his opponents with intelligent, creative and hard-to-detect schemes. This is his true football genius. Some of the best game-plans ever seen executed on an NFL field came from the brilliant, calculating and beautiful mind of Bill Belichick and it’s all available on film.
His defensive scheme to stop the “K-Gun” offense versus the Buffalo Bills as Defensive Coordinator of the New York Giants during the early ’90s, is known as the best singular defensive game-plan ever devised. Same for his approach as Head Coach of the Patriots in their upset Super Bowl XXXVI winning game over the “Greatest Show on Turf.” Belichick nearly slowed them to a stop. Ask Peyton Manning how much fun he had playing against Belichick’s defenses next time you see him. After the ticks and full body sweats, I’m sure you’d get an honest answer. How about what he’s done to slow down and stop Andy Reid’s prolific offenses with Pat Mahomes at quarterback? Before Belichick got to him he looked unstoppable.
My point is this, how much is left that we or everyone else in the NFL hasn’t seen? Maybe there is more. Or maybe it doesn’t matter because the other coaches just don’t know what to do against his genius. If I’m the Kraft’s however, I’m not betting solely on that to sustain my future success.
More talent on the field is required. More support; professional, NFL level support is required on the sidelines and more support is needed in the personnel office. Without it, it’s a recipe for diminishing returns on what has been the best investment in this organization's history. Investing in Bill Belichick in 2000 was Robert Kraft’s smartest move.
The next smartest move would be to invest around him for both the present and the future.