Have you been seduced by these spring training Red Sox?
FORT MYERS, Fla. - Make no mistake about it: Jordan Montgomery can't hurt.
The free agent pitcher is a proven winner and innings-eater, totaling a combined 3.61 ERA over his last four seasons. We know what he did when it counted the most, helping lead the Rangers to four wins in his six postseason starts while managing a 2.90 ERA.
Montgomery is the guy you sign to offer stability while you figure out exactly what else you have.
But a question has to start being asked: How badly does this Red Sox team need that guy?
In the days after the latest Scott Boras three-year, two-opt-out deal (Cody Bellinger) - as of Saturday - per sources, there hadn't been movement in terms of Montgomery's asking price, continuing the staring contest between Boras and potentially interested teams like the Red Sox.
What has been changing is how the Red Sox potentially view the holes they would be banking on Montgomery to fill. Without being seduced by spring training statistics or general optics, it certainly feels like the club is trending toward entering best-case-scenario country.
"In the offseason I have had access to the video, pitch data and stats. And then you come into camp and I think (pitching coach) Andrew (Bailey) and the rest of the pitching group have done a really good job defining what the goals are. Guys are making progress toward those goals," Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told WEEI.com.
"So you can immediately see changes in pitch shapes. Changes in pitch usage. Small delivery tweaks that have resulted in upticks in velo. I think there are the measurables. And then there is just the change in environment around here with enthusiasm and excitement and guys challenging each other. You see it with guys throwing a velo pen and have five or six or seven guys behind them cheering, trying to get the most out of every rep."
Breslow added, "Sure there are guys who bounce back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. And guys who had traditional metrics you wouldn’t get super excited about. And then you see these guys and you’re like, ‘Wait a second, that’s a big league pitcher.’"
Some of the impetus for optimism could be found over the weekend, with both Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford reaching peaks of velocity not consistently seen in 2023. Garrett Whitlock. Nick Pivetta. Brayan Bello. Lucas Giolito. Their early returns have also certainly been more promising than concerning.
The projection game was particularly dangerous coming into spring training considering the amount of questions lingering over each of the pitchers. But doubts are getting somewhat doused, with the caveat there are three weeks that can make that narrative do a U-turn.
For some semblance of proof - besides the radar gun readings and eye tests - understand that the Red Sox' starters own the major league-lowest WHIP (Walks/Hits Per Innings Pitched) and opponents' batting average in the majors.
It's not a lot, but it is something.
"This is something we envisioned," said Red Sox manager Alex Cora before Sunday's win over the Blue Jays. "These guys are talented. Tanner, you saw it (Saturday) with the velocity. He threw strikes. Whit, his changeup is better. It’s something we have been searching for for two years. I think Bello is making strides with his slider. Even some guys in the bullpen, they are throwing strikes. But it’s not just throwing strikes, it’s quality strikes. We have been getting a lot of swings and misses, which is important.
"They do feel a little bit better about the group they have behind them. It’s more athletic. We’re moving in the infield. We can talk about Trevor (Story), but Raffy (Devers) made two great plays (Saturday). We expect to be better defensively. I know we have been saying this for four years, but it feels that way. In the outfield, whoever the three are out there we do believe they are going to move a lot quicker than the groups in the past expect the one in ’18 and ’19, obviously. I do like where we’re at defensively."
The point is that the Red Sox aren't seemingly as desperate as some might have envisioned they would be come the first week of March. (And that is even without the red-hot Chris Sale, who hasn't given up a run while striking out nine in his first 5 2/3 innings this spring.)
Don't get it twisted. The Red Sox can't claim to not have carried at least some of the skepticism others did heading into spring training. Don't forget, they made runs at a wide variety of starting options, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Hicks and James Paxton.
And if the price is right, don't think for a second the idea that a rotation stabilizer such as Montgomery won't be revisited. There is also the reality that some of these names who are offering optimism can also provide value in the bullpen if pushed down into that role.
But, for now, it would seem as though the under-the-hood approach is offering some intrigue.
"I think everybody looks at their players a little bit differently when you’re here and in-person. But it is a very dangerous thing to do," explained Breslow. "I would point to pitch data stabilizes more than most other data. Changes in velocity and changes in pitch shape, those things tend to be real and predictive and lasting. But, yes, it can be a very, very dangerous things to start to draw conclusion based on watching things day to day. I think the biggest difference is just this: A clear understanding and alignment with every one of these guys for what they need to do to be successful major league pitchers. I think together we have created that."