The mystery of how the Red Sox’ offseason will unfold is one of baseball’s great riddles heading into life after the World Series.
How will they spend their newly-found Mookie (Betts) money? Will there be a run at expensive free agents? Will Chaim Bloom prioritize trades when trying to uncover that pitching this team so desperately needs, keeping payroll under $200 million until fans in the stands become a reality?
But one thing that is murmured in the background while guesses and predictions are concocted is this: Look to Liverpool. The soccer team the Red Sox own (OK, Fenway Sports Group owns) might just be serving as the blueprint for, you guessed it, the Red Sox.
This isn’t any sort of breaking news, but it keeps coming up in these October conversations.
I don’t follow Premier League soccer but I have heard this narrative enough of late to feel like it might be worth looking into.
It’s why I called Taylor Twellman.
Nobody knows the soccer landscape better than the former Revolution star and current ESPN analyst. And he also just happens to be very well-versed in the world of Boston baseball. My question to Twellman was this: Was this a road worth gazing down.
“There is a similarity to how the Red Sox are treating the Red Sox based on their Liverpool success,” Twellman said.
So, there you go.
As it turns out, the line that can be drawn from Liverpool — the team that Fenway Sports Group bought for $493 million in 2010 — to where the Red Sox might be headed might not necessarily be a straight shot, but it isn’t difficult to connect the dots.
Why not? In the eyes of those paying the bills in Boston a lot of what worked with their investment in England can offer somewhat of a map for these Red Sox.
“They believe in what they have found,” explained Twellman. “It is very similar to Moneyball. It has the same kind of fundamentals. The difference is that Moneyball is based on scouting and finding the minor-league player where Liverpool is still buying player but they just aren’t going top spend over a certain number because they don’t see the financial return.”
And this is where the foundation for the philosophy is found.
Here is how it worked for Liverpool …
- With the direction of Mike Gordon, the long-suffering organization put its trust in former player and analytics whiz Michael Edwards. With his help Liverpool started targeting undervalued players who might fit into a system instead of paying big money to someone who a team would have to build a system around.
- Find the right manager to find the right system and get the most out of these undervalued acquisitions. In Liverpool’s case it was Jurgen Klopp.
“They are in the stratosphere with the on-the-field product, but their on-the-field product is all based on their manager Jurgen Klopp and the system and buying players that fit their system,” Twellman said. “He is easily Top 3 managers in the world and it’s not even close. He can take something for 25 cents and turns it into a dollar. He develops players in a style that suits those type of players so you don’t need to get the most expensive players in the world.”
- Don’t overpay for one player when you can spread it around. This was the case when Liverpool parted ways with its best player, and fan favorite Philippe Coutinho, letting him go for $180 million, $170 million more than they originally paid for him five years earlier. They proceeded to turn around and scoop up a player like Virgil Van Dijk for pennies on the dollar. Van Dijk is now one of the best defenders in the world while carrying a contract that keeps him with Liverpool through the 2022-23 season.
“The way Liverpool has taken on this identify is that they are very, very, very pragmatic with their spending,” Twellman added. “Especially for a team that is winning the Champions League, winning the Premier League and yet Manchester City is spending almost three times what they are in the same amount of time frame.”
- Spend when you need to. Liverpool has the fifth-highest payroll, having been fourth the year before. After its July championship, it understood the importance of allocating resources to sustain the success, paying significant transfer fees for Diogo Jota ($49 million) and Thiago ($24 million).
So, how does this correlate to what the Red Sox might do.
The first takeaway is perhaps prioritizing the undervalued players instead of the overpriced ones, perhaps more than this market is used to. In other words, maybe more Nick Pivettas than Trevor Bauers.
The second? Finding their Klopp.
While a soccer manager means much more to the on-field production than a baseball manager might, the idea of hiring someone who can successfully implement the system that will extract the most of the players the front office is prioritizing is a very real thing.
“It was a necessity to keep the level they are at (financially),” Twellman said. “Would I wish Liverpool would take one step forward? Yes I do, but they say that about the Red Sox sometimes. For the brand that they are, how they are recognized around the world, I actually believe they could take it up 15 or 20 percent. But in all honesty it’s a better business model if you’ve got a guy like Jurgen Klopp that is going to maximize this amount of spending versus spending a bunch of money and it not working and then you’re circling the drain.”
The bottom line is that Liverpool has figured out a way to win with a model that would suggest sustained success. The Red Sox? They’re open to suggestions.