Will there be another $8 million manager?
The Red Sox' calculated gamble paid off.
When the team offered Nick Pivetta the $21.05 million qualifying offer, some thought it was a reach considering the righty's up-and-down production through 2024 (6-12, 4.14 ERA). After the Reds' Nick Martinez, some believed Pivetta would be the most likely of those extended the one-year QO to actually commit to it for 2025.
But Craig Breslow and Co. understood how organizations were viewing free agents like Pivetta. Things like 'ERA' were way down the list of metrics to be prioritized. Teams were taking a deeper dive in terms of pitchers' effectiveness, and when they did it with Pivetta usually the discovery was worth another look.
Sure enough, the Sox' instincts were keen.
Due in large part to the belief that teams weren't going to be scared off by the notion that a draft pick was going to be surrendered in order to sign Pivetta - along with signs pointing to that the pitcher would be able to get the kind of coveted multi-year contract the 31-year-old free agent was hoping for - the decision made made.
The Red Sox would be getting a second-round compensatory pick for Pivetta if he signed elsewhere, while also defining an open spot in their starting rotation. (It is unlikely the Sox would re-sign the righty to a deal even though it wouldn't cost them a draft pick.)
Pivetta certainly has presented value for the Red Sox since coming over during the shortened 2020 season for Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree, with the team going 69-65 in his appearances with a 4.26 ERA. He also excelled during the Sox' 2021 postseason run, holding hitters to a .188 batting average in his three appearances (2.63 ERA).
Now, the Red Sox' rotation is made up of Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and perhaps Garrett Whitlock (who may be moved to the bullpen). Their depth starters include Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts.
(If you're looking for a theme among all these pitchers you're in luck: They are all right-handers.)
Other than putting their best foot forward in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the team's priority now turns to finding a top of the rotation starter that is perceived a notch up from Pivetta. And while there are certainly intriguing left-handed candidates in free agents Blake Snell and Max Fried, as well as southpaw trade candidate Garrett Crochet, the idea of making a run at Corbin Burnes shouldn't be excluded.
But considering the current construction of the Sox' starting rotation, and the notion that draft compensation in cases like Pivetta can offer big payoffs (see the comp pick used for losing Xander Bogaerts - Kristian Campbell), and it was a good way to ease into the meat and potatoes of Hot Stove season.
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In other Red Sox news, the Red Sox added a pair of minor-leaguers to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, giving the designation to pitcher Hunter Dobbins and outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia. In order to make room for the pair, the Sox designated pitchers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell for assignment.
Dobbins is coming off a 2024 in which he was designated as the Red Sox' Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year after totaling a 3.08 ERA between Double-A Portland (21 starts) and Triple-A Worcester (4 starts). He ranked third in the minors for fewest homers surrendered per nine innings.
The 21-year-old Garcia led Red Sox minor leaguers with 23 homers in 2024, hitting .286 with an .892 OPS between Single-A and Double-A.