Pardon me while I tweak a quote from Mark Twain for this week's preview. Reports of the Kansas City Chiefs demise have been exaggerated. After opening the season 0-2 with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, a red hot Chiefs team that has five wins in its last six games will face the Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday.
After averaging just 20 points a game over the first three weeks of the season, Patrick Mahomes and company have come alive. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in each of their last five games and over that stretch they have averaged 137 yards rushing, 415 total yards and have a 76% touchdown rate in the red zone.
A big part of that explosion on offense has been the return of wide receivers Xavier Worthy, who missed games two and three with an injury, and Rashee Rice who served a six game suspension.
Mahomes, who is just 1-4 against the Josh Allen led Bills in regular season games, has three straight games of at least three touchdown passes and is tied for the league lead with 17 TD tosses for the season. Mahomes is averaging 262 passing yards a game with the 17 TD's and just four interceptions. He's added 280 yards on the ground, which is second best on the Chiefs, and another four touchdowns.
KC's offense has put points on the scoreboard on 52% of their drives which is second best in the league and the highest rate for Mahomes since 2018. The Chiefs are ranked ninth in rush yards per game, fifth in pass yards, sixth in third down efficiency and they lead the NFL in first downs per game.
Guess who is having a good season at tight end? Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs in receptions(37) and receiving yards(474). But it's the depth at wide receiver that makes the Chiefs offense scary once again. In addition to speedsters Worthy and Rice, the Bills defense will have to deal with Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thorton. A former Patriot, Thornton is averaging an eye popping 22 yards a catch. The group's motto this season has been "everybody gotta eat".
It has been a two man operation at running back. Isaiah Pacheco has 329 yards on 78 carries while Kareem Hunt has 245 yards on 62 carries. There are a couple of things to keep an eye on with the guys blocking up front though. Left tackle Josh Simmons has been away from the team for personal reasons and right guard Trey Smith missed the last game due to a back injury.
Defensively the Chiefs rank second in the league in scoring. They've held five of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. KC is fourth in total yards, 11th in rush yards and third in pass yards. They are 16th on third down and 14th in sacks per pass play. This could be a big game for Bills tight ends. KC has given up an 82% completion rate on throws to tight ends this season. The Bills Dalton Kincaid is averaging 14.8 yards per catch, second best among NFL tight ends.
Safety Chamarri Conner leads the team in tackles but the number two guy on the list, linebacker Nick Bolton is the key in the middle of their defense. Defensive end George Karlaftis tops the D with 4.5 sacks. Chris Jones is still a force at defensive tackle. He has a pair of sacks and five tackles for loss. The secondary is strong, especially at cornerback with Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson leading the way.
This will be the tenth meeting between the Allen led Bills and Mahomes led Chiefs. The Bills have the 4-1 edge in the regular season but, as you well know, KC has taken all four of the playoff matchups. Over the nine previous meetings, Allen has 24 total touchdowns, five interceptions and averaged 255 yards passing. Mahomes has 22 TD's, three picks and 273 yards passing per game.
Bills notes:
* Allen is averaging just 222 yards passing which is 18th best in the league.
* James Cook is second in the NFL in rushing yards (753) and in rush TD's (7).
* The Bills are 5-0 this season when they score at least 30 points(0-2 under 30 points).
* According to TruMedia, the Bills have the second highest pressure rate in the NFL at 9.7%. But Mahomes has one of the quickest releases with an average of 2.5 seconds. KC also has the lowest pressure rate against in the NFL at 22%.
* The Bills lead the NFL in average time of possession (33:14).
* The 5-2 Bills trail New England by a half game. The Patriots host Atlanta on Sunday.