The first time I went into a casino I was with my college quarterback Brett Basanez. Like many casino first timers, I hung back watching, trying to understand how everything worked. I watched Brett walk through the roulette tables, observing the boards that displayed the recent numbers that came up. I watched as Brett would, in my observation, randomly pick a table and throw down a few chips on red or black. Confused by the strategy I asked Brett what he was doing. He told me he waited until a wheel had hit 5 straight of one color then bet on the opposite color because in his assessment…what are the odds that the wheel hits 6 straight on one color? I nodded my head in understanding, internally deciding that Brett had finally lost his mind.
After all, by walking around and waiting for 5 colors to already come up, you’re not betting that it would hit six straight, those odds were astronomical. In reality, you’re betting the same basic odds you would on any spin that the color would come up. His chip stack reflected this flawed strategy. I find myself just as confused watching the national media this week. The Saints don’t have to beat the Bucs three times this week, they have to beat them once.
For the second time this year the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to the Superdome. The last time, all the way back in week one, the Saints came away with a victory in Brady’s first start in pewter. He wasn’t very impressive in that game throwing two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. In all fairness, playing a team like the Saints in your first start in a new system, even for a first ballot hall-of-famer, is a recipe for disaster.
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The second time the Saints faced the Bucs the narrative seemed almost coordinated amongst the national media. “Brady has never been swept. HE WON’T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN.” Of course, if winning and losing was a conscience decision, there would be a battle royale at the Super Bowl every year, since every team showed up undefeated. In reality, you win games because you have the better team, or because you executed the game plan better. The Saints had both on their side in the week 9 matchup. The 38-3 score showed that.
Fast forward 9 weeks and Saints fans find themselves in the same frustrating situation as they did in week 9. Watching television for a week and hearing national prognosticators tell you that if the wheel has hit red 9 times… then this time it MUST be black. Of course, they haven’t only relied on the “Tom won’t let it happen” narrative exclusively. Now there are some new storylines. Antonio Brown is now fully acclimated to the offense. Of course, before the last game it was, “They didn’t have Antonio Brown last time.” Afterwards it was acknowledged that maybe he would need more time. The only person I heard saying that before that game was Deuce McAllister.
Now the lazy take is to say the Buccaneers are a different team since the bye week. Statistically, the Bucs have been much better offensively since their late week 13 bye. They put up big numbers through the air, proving they have become the dominant offense many predicted when the season began. The Buccaneers averaged 357 passing yards per game over the final four weeks. Antonio Brown had a season high 11 catches for 138 yards in that game. Impressive. Except for the fact this incredible run of offensive performance came against the 25th, 32nd, 30th and 32nd ranked passing defenses in the NFL. That week 17 outburst by Brown? He needed 11 catches to reach that $250,000 incentive Brady promised him. It came with 3 shovel passes in the final 2 minutes.
We faced a Bears team last week that averaged 31.2 points per game over the final 5 weeks. Deuce and I pointed that out in our Saints Radio broadcast. Of course, we also mentioned that run of games were against the Vikings (29th), Jags (31st), Texans (27th), Lions (32nd) and Packers (13th). To ignore how the stats are accumulated is an exercise in stupidity. Many were quick to point out last week that the Bears statistical surge came against inferior opponents, which the Saints certainly were not. No one seems to be suggesting that with the Bucs. Certainly, Tampa Bay was good last week vs. the WFT. Brady was hit one time in the first half of that football game. That is a recipe for disaster.
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The Buccaneers thrived this year vs. inferior opponents. There is no possible way to deny that. Versus defenses ranked outside the top 15 this season, the Buccaneers’ average score margin is +17.7. Versus top 15 defenses, it’s -3.3. They average 37.3 points per game this year vs.
defenses outside the top 15, just 22.2 vs. defenses inside 15. While that isn’t an unusual number, it certainly sets a clearer expectation for this game than simply… you can’t beat a team 3 times in a season (14 of 21 teams in this situation have done just that).
The playoffs often come down to matchups and who matches up well with whom. The Saints pose a tough challenge for the Buccaneers because they excel in all the areas the Bucs generally exploit. They have depth and talent in the secondary. The Saints have a front 7 that can harass quarterbacks and have thrived vs. immobile pocket passers (averaging 4 sacks a game in 6 games vs. that type of qb). They have an outstanding run defense that keeps teams one dimensional. Finally, the Saints create turnovers and have accelerated that trend towards the end of the year. The Saints exploited reserve guard Joe Haeg in the week 9 matchup and will try to exploit Aaron Stinnie in his first career start. The Bucs passing attack is explosive and getting to Brady is imperative, but even when they don’t, the Saints have the best collection of talent in the secondary the Bucs have seen this year.
Offensively the Saints have to find ways to consistently run the football. Payton has been very patient running the ball against Todd Bowles’ defenses in the past and needs to again today. The increased workload for Deonte Harris last week may continue vs a secondary that struggles vs quick fluid route runners. The Saints tackles have been playing their best football of the season, but the interior needs to hold up against the power rushes from Suh and William Gholston. Look for the Bucs to be far more aggressive than they were in the first matchup. Bowles sat back in a zone for most of that game and Brees picked him apart. While bringing pressure may be a bad idea, since Brees is more affective against the blitz than he is vs. a four-man rush. Look for a lot of internal games to try and throw the inside three off and create that internal push that you need vs. Brees. I don’t expect a huge game from Mike Thomas because I think there are better matchups elsewhere, but in that big moment and especially down tight in the red zone, expect Mike Thomas to make his impact. The absence of Latavius Murray and Taysom Hill will necessitate Mike shines in those spots.
The Buccaneers are as talented a team as the Saints will see this year. They have one of if not the greatest quarterback in NFL history. They have 3 Pro Bowl receivers. The Bucs defense has been among the best in football since the arrival of Todd Bowles as defensive coordinator. This article is not to say the Bucs aren’t completely capable of beating the Saints today. They are. If the Saints don’t execute, they will not continue on in this postseason.
What I did want to point out is the absolute hypocrisy that permeated the national narrative this week. This idea that Brady simply can’t lose this game because he has already lost twice to the Saints is ludacris. In any other sport, that would never be the case. If you got swept by a team in the regular season in baseball and played them in the World Series, everyone would be talking about the pitching matchups favoring one team or poor decisions another manager made. Somehow for this game, the discussion has gone in the direction of one team having “figured out” the other due to their utter failures in the first two games.
The truth is closer to this. Bruce Arians is 0-4 vs. the Saints as the coach of the Bucs because his team is not as good, he has been outcoached and the Saints have executed better. The Saints have taken advantage of takeaways in those 4 games to the tune of an 11-3 turnover margin. They found ways to stay balanced, committing to run the football vs. a defense that most don’t. The Saints have taken what was presented to them, and taken away what the Bucs need to do to win. It has not been a case of the Saints narrowly escaping with wins. They dominated the Bucs over the past two seasons. To suggest now that will change because they simply are upset is ludacris.
The Saints have been absolutely crushed in the playoffs the past three seasons. They found ways to bounce back each of those years and have proven to be one of the elite teams in the NFL. They are playing a team they have beaten 5 straight times, 4 with the same coaching staff and twice, with the same roster. What does that mean for today? Not much. Just like spinning red five straight times doesn’t make a black, spinning 5 straight also doesn’t promise a 6th. Today’s game, like every in the playoffs will come down to matchups and execution. The Saints have proven to be on the plus side of the matchup battles and unquestionably have executed better. For a team on a mission, simply wanting revenge won’t get the job done. In the playoffs the better TEAM wins. In this game, that advantage is clear.