Despite the significant differences – and divergent immediate futures – between the Patriots (12-3) and Dolphins (4-11), there could very well be a fight to the finish during Sunday afternoon’s season finale at Gillette Stadium.
From the New England perspective, the motivation is simple. Bill Belichick has declared the battle with Miami as a playoff game. A win will secure the No. 2 playoff seed for the Patriots, advancing the team to the divisional round and giving the defending champs a chance to rest, recover and prepare for a potential Super Bowl run on Wild Card Weekend.
First-year coach and former Patriots top defensive assistant Brian Flores doesn’t have quite the same cut-and-dried sales pitch for Miami. The Dolphins, who have actually won four of their last eight games after the ugly 0-7 start to the season, will fight for pride and momentum heading into the offseason. Flores faces his former team knowing that another Miami miracle upset could see the Patriots playing on Wild Card Weekend, an unlikely road to the Super Bowl.
Of course the motivations for both squads heading into the game could change as the game plays out and the results begin to declare themselves. Fighting to the finish will be much easier for the ‘Phins if they are competitive early. Cruising to the finish could be part of the narrative if Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and other veteran Patriots take care of business and a build a lead against a team they blew out 43-0 in Week 2 in Miami in Antonio Brown’s one career game in a New England uniform.
“The Dolphins have been playing well the past few weeks and it’ll be another good challenge for us,” running back James White said of the finale. “It’s an important game for us, just got to go out and compete from the first snap to the last. Those guys are going to come out ready to play.”
As the bulk of the world recovers from Christmas and prepares for New Year’s, the Patriots finish holiday-week preparations for what Belichick positioned as a pre-January playoff game. Here are a few key areas to keep an eye on as the playoff-bound Patriots and fight-filled, rebuilding Dolphins get ready to fight to the finish in Foxborough.
Football players – including Julian Edelman – play football: Much has been made this week of the idea that Julian Edelman should be kept out of action or at least have his reps monitored during the Dolphins finale. The slot receiver has taken a beating all season as the clear centerpiece of the Patriots offense. That bottomed out with him fighting through chest, shoulder and knee injuries as a shell of himself in Cincy a couple weeks ago, able to muster just two catches for 9 yards. Prevailing thought is that Edelman should sit out the finale to get healthy because the Patriots aren’t going anywhere in January if the slot target can’t carry his hefty share of the offensive load. There are two problems with that theory. First, if the Patriots don’t play Edelman and somehow get shockingly upset by Miami they could be playing on Wild Card Weekend. That would be a huge blow to their Super Bowl chances. Second, Edelman actually looked much healthier and more like himself in last weekend’s win over the Bills. He moved much more fluidly and could be even more ready to go after another week of treatment. There is no way the Patriots can or even should rest Edelman on Sunday. He’s too important in a game that’s more important than some realize.
Putting it on the line again: New England’s offensive line played arguably its best game of the season in Saturday’s win over the Bills. The pass protection was much-improved and Brady’s production improved as a result. The run blocking allowed the unit to churn out yards in impressive fashion on the ground for the second straight week. If the Patriots are to build some offensive momentum heading toward the playoffs, it likely will continue to be built upon offensive line cohesion and execution. The season-long questions and inconsistencies with the offense in New England have been driven by the offensive line. Now the question is whether the offensive line can be a driving force for the offense as the calendar turns to the new year and the postseason. Based on the last two weeks, at least, the potential is there.
Run D do your job: Much the way the offensive line is working to answer its questions, the Patriots run defense is trying to do the same as the final week of the regular season plays out. After some shaky performances, including two weeks ago in Cincy, the run defense was a part of the solid win over the Bills. Now, the group should build some confidence against a Dolphins running attack that’s basically non-existent at this point. More teams than just the Ravens could look to attack the Patriots run defense in the postseason, so taking care of business in the trenches against Miami would be a nice step for the unit to hit the postseason feeling good about its run fits and potential to play stout as the biggest games of the year approach.
Start ‘em, sit ‘em: Getting off to a fast start against the Dolphins would be a positive in so many ways. It’s how you always want to start a game, especially when you are a two-plus-touchdown home favorite. It allows you to play from in front, play to your strengths. It could take the life out of the underdog visitor set to hit the postseason as soon as the final whistle blows. It could also allow Belichick, if he so chooses, to do a little NBA-style load management with his key players, especially those dealing with physical issues after a long, grinding NFL season. Jumping out to an early lead would be a very nice post-Christmas gift for everyone in Patriot Nation.
Just do it: While Belichick would never even consider the idea that the battle with the Dolphins is any kind of a “tune-up” for the postseason, in some ways it is just that. There are certain things the Patriots have proven they can do well over the course of the first 15 games. The pass defense, led by Stephon Gilmore, is the strength of the team. They can take the ball away. They take care of the ball on offense, avoiding big negative plays. The punt block team is going to put pressure on the opposing team. The short passing game remains the bread and butter for Brady, Edelman and James White. All those things should remain a positive and get polished up in the finale. Adding to that group with strong run defense, consistent execution from the offensive line, clutch kicking from Nick Folk and outside playmaking from N’Keal Harry would be nice tools to add to New England’s postseason toolbox. Sure, things can change or evolve in the must-win action of the playoffs. But building as many strengths as possible heading into that crucible is ideal.
Prediction: Let’s be clear, a Dolphins win in this finale would be way more shocking than last December’s Miami Miracle. But the Patriots aren’t just expected to win the game, they are expected to do so in impressive, controlled, consistent fashion while staying healthy. Doing that will create momentum heading into the playoffs. Failing in any of those areas will reignite some of the questions the team has faced all season. There is really no reason the Patriots aren’t up to the task. They should be able to run the ball some more and stop the run. The pass defense may be challenged by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Devante Parker, but not to the point that it’s an issue. Miami will probably pull out all the stops – including a continued willingness to push the envelope with fakes and tricks in the kicking game – but it shouldn’t really be nearly enough. In the end a 30-16 win for New England closes out the year in positive fashion and gets the ball rolling toward the playoffs.
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