Four years ago the Saints faithful experienced one of the most devastating losses in the history of the NFL. The team (and fans) returned the following season to questions of whether they would be able to overcome such a brutal ending to their season. The Saints responded with a number one seed and hosted the Rams in the Superdome needing one win to head to their second Super Bowl. Somehow the football gods showed an awful sense of humor and found an even more cruel exit for New Orleans in the now famous “NOLA no call.” 2019 provided approximately zero relief. So here we find ourselves, just hours away from the Saints 4th straight playoff appearance, every fan in the city mad at me for bringing up those three games.
First let me share with you, I don’t believe in jinxes or any other form of predetermined destiny. I hated the feeling as a player that all my hard work was wasted because someone said or did something incorrectly; something that put a hex on me or the team. Deuce, (who doesn’t share my disbelief in bad gris gris), is constantly angry with me for saying something that hasn’t happened in a while, or suggesting some aspect of the game is going well for the Saints. Occasionally, I give him a little jab about it. His response is usually to switch the hand he’s holding his water in, or flipping the pen from his right ear to his left. While I don’t believe in those things (jinxes), I do believe in this. The Saints are fully aware of what is at stake.
For three years now, the Saints have been the best team in football in many ways, just not the way that matters. They sat at home and watched Super Bowl games they could win. They sat on the field and watched others celebrate. They returned to the locker room to tears, frustration and regret. Then in each of those years, they returned and put themselves back in position to change their story. The problem is, that book is running out of pages.
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The players in that building know that the time is now. This isn’t even about Drew Brees and his career counting down. True, this could be Drew Brees’ final game. Honestly, each of the games over the last few years could have been his last. That’s the nature of this game. It isn’t about Drew though. It is about capitalizing on one of the all-time great draft classes. The Saints have amassed an incredible collection of talent over the past couple years. Enough talent to survive the loss of their starting QB then racking up an 8-1 record. Enough talent to field a top 5 offense and defense this season. That talent is getting older, and as it ages, it gets expensive.
The Saints were always going to have some cap issues at the end of Brees’ career, but they planned for that. They hadn’t planned for a worldwide pandemic killing thousands while also wiping out millions in projected cap space. This off-season will be interesting, and I don’t mean that in a good way. The organizational structure is in place to continue winning and succeeding, but to waste the draft class of 2017 and not win a Super Bowl with it, before they all leave their rookie deal, would be a tragedy. Like I said, the time is now.
The Saints come into this game with the best offensive/defensive combination in the Sean Payton era. New Orleans finished the season as the 5th ranked scoring offense and the 5th ranked scoring defense. The Saints finished with the 10th most rushing TD’s in NFL history, and defensively the 2nd fewest surrendered in the NFL this year. They ranked 6th offensively on the ground and 4th defensively. They finished with the most INT in the NFL this year and had the 3rd best turnover differential. The Saints are stacked, but maybe even more importantly, they are intact.
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Every year when I get asked in the preseason if the Saints will go to the Super Bowl, I respond the same way. Tell me who’s playing in January. There are so many factors that play into making a run at a world championship. I don’t know that any are as important as health. All season, prognosticators have considered the Saints the most complete roster in the NFL. That doesn’t do you much good if half your team is on I.R.. After a few weeks without several starters and almost a whole season without Michael Thomas, the Saints return to the playoffs at nearly full strength. Continued health would go a long way to this Saints season ending differently than the last three. Task number one… beat the Bears.
Chicago comes into this game with more confidence than would usually accompany an 8-8 team that backed into the playoffs. The Saints were the second of six straight losses for the Bears and Chicago seemed destined for a full tear down and rebuild. After head coach Matt Nagy decided on the bye week that the team would turn back to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, the fortunes began to shift.
After losing his first game back to the Packers, the former 2nd overall pick got the Bears offense rolling. Over a 4 week span from weeks 13-16, Chicago averaged 35 points a game, a big departure from the 19.6 they averaged up till then. The scoring explosion led the way to a 3 game winning streak and the Bears to a 7 seed in the playoffs. How’d they do it? Well, lets say the quarterback wasn’t the only change.
Following the bye week and needing a shakeup, head coach Matt Nagy made a substantial change by handing play calling duties to his offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Lazor identifyed the skills and attributes people have long asked the Bears to utilize with Trubisky. The results have benefited the Bears. The offense has been altered to better reflect the skill set of their starting quarterback. More pre-snap movement, boots, and nakeds have better complimented the outside zone scheme this group was built to run in the first place. Even better for the Bears, their new look offense more directly reflects the weakness of the Saints defense this season.
If the Bears can find some traction on the ground with Montgomery, who has been outstanding at the end of the season (5.16 yds per carry over the last 6 weeks with 7 TDs), the play action game can put the Saints in a bind. The Bears will be without Tulane product Darnell Mooney, which could cause some issues for an offense that has relied on the 5th rounder as the number two receiver behind the outstanding Allen Robinson III. Jimmy Graham remains a dangerous red zone target ranking in the top ten league wide in targets, receptions and TD’s in that vital area of the field.
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The Saints have the front four to pressure Trubisky even without Hendrickson, who will miss this game with a neck injury. While Trubisky does have mobility to break contain in the pocket, he doesn’t have a lot of big play threats down the field. The Saints will commit resources to Robinson with the absence of Mooney and force the Bears to methodically work the ball down the field. They should excel most in the red zone and can hold the Bears to field goals in the red zone. The Saints are simply a bad matchup for the Bears, if they play to their potential.
On the other side of the ball the Saints will see a physical, aggressive group. The Bears defense has been trying to carry this team for a few years now and have fallen off the elite pace they once had after signing Mack to this extension. The Bears have not had the leads in most games to allow their pass rush to be as effective as it could be. It’s left them in the position of being a good but not great group. Khalil Mack has continued to be one of the most dominant forces in the NFL. While his 9 sacks don’t necessarily speak to his total effectiveness, when watching the tape, his impact is unmistakable. Mack is constantly faced with double teams, no real threat on the other side for teams to worry about.
Robert Quinn, who was signed to be that bookend, has been largely ineffective with just a couple of sacks to show for his effort. Akiem Hicks remains a physical presence in the interior, and I believe from a matchup perspective represents the biggest threat to the Saints offensively along the front. Like every week, establishing the run early vs. the Bears will be big, allowing the Saints to keep the front off balanced. Expect the Saints to heavily favor their offensive right side to funnel help towards Mack, allowing Armstead, who is having his best season in a Saints uniform, to handle Quinn on the backside.
The real trouble for the Bears starts behind the front. Roquan Smith, the second team all-pro, has been a do-everything player for Chicago this year. His sideline to sideline playing style and ability to matchup athletically with running backs and tight ends alike has been the key to the Bears defensive scheme. Smith will be down in this game, replaced by Josh Woods, who failed to impress in reserve action last week vs. the Packers. Chicago will also be without Buster Skrine for this game, their starting nickel corner.
This highlights two players for me. Alvin Kamara immediately becomes a matchup problem without Smith roaming the field. He was already an issues for the Bears, having amassed over 150 yards in the first matchup with the Bears. I have to believe the Bears will feel like they need to commit a safety to Kamara in coverage, opening the middle of the field for the Saints.
That’s where Emmanuel Sanders becomes a problem. Taking most of his snaps in the slot, Sanders becomes a big issue for a team missing players on the outside. His ability to work those deep zones could be where the Saints go early and often. Sanders has become a steady and reliable target for Brees and with the return of Mike Thomas, the field should open up substantially for the two to link up. Again, the game will all start on the ground. The Saints have averaged 168 yards a game over the last six weeks and another steady effort on the ground today may prove to be too much for the Bears.
I cannot take a team lightly. I am not playing. I’ve tried to explain that to people all week with little to no success. My job is to look at the matchup and report what I see. Here it is. The Bears would not have made it to this point if they hadn’t seen three defenses ranked in the bottom five of the NFL over the final five weeks. Much of their offensive improvement was built on the backs of bad defensive football.
Unfortunately for the Saints, confidence doesn’t really care how it comes about. The Bears believe they can move the ball offensively. Six weeks ago they didn’t. They will come into New Orleans with a chip on their shoulders, and make no mistake, this will be a very physical football game. If the Saints allow the Bears to hang around and move the ball offensively, this will be a close game.
If the last three years taught the Saints anything, it’s to not take anything for granted. I find it hard to believe they haven’t learned that lesson, but we will find out today. The Saints are the better team. They are healthier, they are more talented, they are better coached. None of that really matters if they don’t play with the intensity you need to win playoff football games.
All the pressure is on New Orleans today. A loss entrenches them firmly in the discussion of the most disappointing teams of all times. I also believe that this team has become the veteran, tough and driven unit one needs to become a champion. They are all acutely aware of what is on the line. I think the Saints are on a mission, and I think the stars are aligning for them to make a run. It starts today.
The season, the hopes, the dreams and the ambitions of a very impressive group of men lay in the balance of sixty minutes or whatever it takes. I wish you were all going to be here to see it. Welcome to the NFL Playoffs!